Monday, April 14, 2014

Day Trading Crude Oil, Gold, E-Mini Russell | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 04/14/14




Peephole Kinetoscope
“I have not failed.  I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.  There is no such thing as failure, only results.”








Today’s Newsletter:
·       Markets Today:  Gold rises, Crude Oil  & Mini-Russell trade sideways
·       News Today: Bullish Retail Sales, Soap-Opera continues in Ukraine
·       This Day in History:  The Peephole Kinetoscope, Titanic strikes ice, and Webster’s Dictionary comes alive!
·       News for Tomorrow:  Holy-Moly we have a TON of news on the schedule!
·       Chart Prep for tomorrow:  Buying Opportunities on Crude Oil & Gold, Sideways Range and Selling Opportunities on E-Mini Russell

Reflections from Today:

·      Markets Today:
o   Crude Oil: 
§  121 ticks of range (typical)
§  Closing-print @ 103.63 (+0.29%)
o   Gold:
§  127 ticks of range (typical)
§  Closing-print @ 1326.6 (+0.25%)
o   Mini-Russell:
§  229 ticks of range (wide)
§  Closing-print @ 1111.6 (+0.32%)
·      News Today:
o   Earnings released today for Citibank, very strong
o   8:30am:  Retail Sales show broad strength
o   10:00am:  Business Inventories as-expected
·      This Day In History:
o   April 14, 1828:  Noah Webster releases his first edition of the Webster Dictionary
o   April 14, 1865:  Abraham Lincoln was assassinated by John Wilkes Booth
o   April 14, 1894:  Thomas Edison’s invention, the Peephole Kinetoscope, later named the Motion Picture, is shown to the public for the first time in NYC.
o   April 14, 1912:  The Ship Titanic strikes an iceberg, scheduled to sink in less than 24 hours
·      News Tomorrow
o   We have a very busy week ahead!
§  Options Expiration on Thursday this week
§  Holy Week:  Passover (Jewish) & Easter Sunday (Christian)
§  Income Tax Pay Day Tuesday (April 15th)
o   More Red-Star News!!
o   3:15am: (CH) Producer Price Index
o   4:30am: (GB) Consumer Price Index
o   5:00am: (DE)  ZEW Survey
o   8:30am: (US) Consumer Price Index
o   9:00am: (US) Treasury International Capital
o   10:00am: (US) Housing Market Index
o   All Day: (US) Income Taxes Due

Economic News for Tomorrow:
Economic News for Tomorrow
We have a VERY busy week of economic news, options expiration, 2 religious holidays, and it’s tax day here in the United States! 




We begin with some concern over volume tomorrow, with income-taxes being due in the United States, which is always a major distraction from the markets for 24-hours. 

We can’t guarantee anything ahead of seeing the price-action tomorrow morning, but we can assume volume will be lower than average as people in the US submit their tax forms at the deadline.

We won’t expect to see much of Options Expiration until later in the week, but remember with a holiday on Friday we have OPEX on Thursday this week, which is very rare to see it on a day other than a Friday.  We will check back on Wednesday to see if we have any concerns over volume and market-personality but we do not expect anything to affect us tomorrow.

Holy week will definitely play a big factor in overall volume and market-personality as the week develops. ‘Passover’ begins this evening at sundown, and will last the rest of the week.  Friday is ‘Good Friday’ and this Sunday is Easter, so we assume this will begin to affect us later in the week.

As for economic news, we begin tomorrow morning in China at 3:00am EST, then followed by European news being released at 4:30am and 5:00am EST.  All of these reports coming out tomorrow are Red-Star News events and will certainly have an impact on the markets we trade overnight.

Tuesday morning in the US we have more Red-Star News starting with Consumer Prices at 8:30am EST.  Shortly afterwards we have Treasury International Capital at 9:00am EST, and the morning finishes with Housing Market Index at 10:00am EST.

Remember, the Fed is watching inflation very closely right now, and news tomorrow from Consumer Prices will give us a look under the surface to see if inflationary concerns are really worth considering at this time.

Trading opportunities for Tomorrow:

Crude Oil:

Crude Oil VIP Chart:
Crude Oil VIP Chart
Crude Oil traded inside the range from Friday in another range-bound-day as the situation in Ukraine heats up and the driving season begins for “Holy Week” this week.  

With volume in the middle of the range today, and we didn’t test the PHOD or PLOD today, so this market is anyone’s for the taking on Tuesday.

Crude Oil 64 Anchor Chart:
Crude Oil 64 Anchor Chart
Crude Oil has pushed higher into the sell-zone at 103.07 up to 103.85 and we ALMOST got through above the big-round-number at $104/barrel this morning, but the buyers failed and price-action collapsed back to $103.50.



Crude Oil 16 Anchor Chart:
Crude Oil 16 Anchor Chart
The 16-anchor chart on Crude Oil Futures shows us right at the highs of this bullish price channel, and I always see the most challenging price-action at the highs of a bull price channel or the lows of a bear price channel, so we must be careful trying to force buying opportunities at this area.

My plan on day trading Crude Oil is to be careful trying to buy the highs, and looking for a selling opportunity tomorrow below 103.00 with a profit-target down at 101.71.  As soon as we get back to the lows of this bull price channel we will then look for buying opportunities in our Live Trade Room.

Short-Term Trading & Scalping:  Please join us tomorrow in our Live Trade Room for short-term trades called with exact entry and exit information.

Gold:

Gold VIP Chart:
Gold VIP Chart
We pushed higher today on the Gold VIP chart, opening at the highs, but finishing in the middle, which leaves the door wide open for buyers or sellers to grab control on Tuesday.


Gold 64 Anchor Chart:
Gold 64 Anchor Chart
Gold continues to push higher, albeit slowly, and we are approaching the major resistance at 1334.9 overhead.  We will continue to look for buying opportunities as we push higher, using the 1334.9 as our profit-target and then looking for a price-reversal to sell it short.


Gold 16 Anchor Chart:
Gold 16 Anchor Chart
Gold is pushing higher on the 16 anchor chart, and we have already tested one of the two buy-zones and we are looking for buying opportunities up to the profit-targets at 1334.2 and 1338.5. 


My plan for day trading Gold is to buy the 1325.1, 1323.6, 1321.4 and 1320.1 support zones and use the levels at 1334.2 and 1338.5 as profit-targets overhead.

Short-Term Trading & Scalping:  Please join us tomorrow in our Live Trade Room for short-term trades called with exact entry and exit information.

Mini-Russell :

Mini-Russell VIP Chart:
Russell VIP Chart
We traded inside the range from Friday on the Mini-Russell VIP chart, which isn’t bad at all, as long as you knew what to do today.  Sell-the-highs at resistance and buy-the-lows at support was the game today because we were inside the range from Friday.

Mini-Russell 64 Anchor Chart:
Russell 64 Anchor Chart
The Mini-Russell was an easy short-selling opportunity last week, which we made great money selling-short.  Now we’ve tested the support zone at 1102.5 and we have more selling opportunities above at 1128.6 and 1145.1.



Mini-Russell 16 Anchor Chart:
Russell 16 Anchor Chart
The faster 16 anchor chart of Mini-Russell shows us a clear sideways-trading-range with double-bottoms and double-tops in the price action, which tells us to avoid the middle, sell the highs, and buy the lows.


My plan on day trading the Mini-Russell is to stay bearish with the long-term-trend, looking for selling opportunities at the zone above us at 1119.0 on the 16-anchor, and again at the 1128.6 resistance level off the 64-anchor chart.

Short-Term Trading & Scalping:  Please join us tomorrow in our Live Trade Room for short-term trades called with exact entry and exit information.

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