Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Day Trading Crude Oil, Gold, E-Mini Russell | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 04/01/14

Steve Jobs & Steve Wozniak
“Successful and unsuccessful people do not vary greatly in their abilities. They vary in their desires to reach their potential.” –John Maxwell

Reflections from Today:

·      Today’s Trades:
o   Crude Oil: 
§  Looking for buying opportunities
§  Waiting for the entry trigger long
o   Gold:
§  Looking for selling opportunities
§  No entry triggered @ 1289.2 (went to 1288.4)
§  Just missed it!
o   Mini-Russell: 
§  Looking for buying opportunities
§  No entry triggered @ 1161.1 (went to 1165.0))
§  Just missed it!
·      Markets Today:
o   Crude Oil: 
§  Look out BELOW!!
§  Price-action tumbles below $100.00
§  229-ticks of range (wide)
§  Closing-print @ 99.62 (-1.92%)
o   Gold:
§  Sloppy session!
§  Range-bound market, bearish tone
§  106 ticks of range (narrow)
§  Closing-print @ 1297.79 (-0.31%)
o   Mini-Russell:
§  To the MOON!
§  Finally pulled-back this afternoon
§  22 ticks of range (wide)
§  Closing-print @ 1186.2 (+1.67%)
·      News Today:
o   European news overnight pushed Equities higher
§  E-mini S&P made new all-time highs intra-day
o   10:00am:  Manufacturing is growing again!
§  New Orders jump, back-log of orders jump
§  The only sector that did NOT grow was employment
o   4:30pm:  API Crude Oil Inventories @ -5.8M Barrels
§  First draw in 6 weeks, largest since January 2014)
o   Washington DC:  House Republicans rolling out new budget proposals, which will balance the budget by 2024.
·      This Day In History:
o   April 1, 1700:  April Fools Begins!
§  English pranksters create a tradition of pranks with each other on April 1.
o   April 1, 1960:  The first US Weather Satellite, TIROS-1, launched from Cape Canaveral
o   April 1, 1970:  President Richard Nixon signs bill which bans cigarette ads from radio and television
o   April 1, 1976:  Steve Jobs & Steve Wozniak found a tiny company out of their garage in Northern California.  They called it, ‘Apple’, which is valued today @ $450Billion
·      News Tomorrow
o   4:30am: (GB) PMI Construction
o   8:15am: (US) ADP Employment Report
o   10:00am: (US) Factory Orders
o   10:30am: (US) Crude Oil Inventories
o   Friday = (US) Non-Farm Payroll News

Economic News for Tomorrow:

Economic News Tomorrow
We continue with more Red-Star News on Wednesday, starting in Europe with more manufacturing news and finishing with Crude Oil Inventories in the United States.

We begin in Europe early in the session with PMI-Construction, and that is the only major news scheduled before the opening-bell in the US.

In the US we have ADP Employment bright and early, followed by Factory Orders and Crude Oil Inventories as we finish the morning session.

The most important thing to remember for tomorrow is that Crude Oil Futures will be a little sloppy ahead of the inventories news at 10:30am EST.

I always sit-on-hands 15-minutes before the inventory report comes out, and I like to stay patient and wait 10-15 minutes after the report comes out so I can find the new trend and focus on following that trend.

We are expecting tomorrow to be another exciting session filled with important news to get the market-personality moving for us!

Trading opportunities for Tomorrow:

Crude Oil:

Crude Oil VIP Chart:
Crude Oil VIP Chart
Crude Oil tumbled lower this morning all the way down to the $100/barrel big-round-number, which we had been waiting to see for the last week of trading sideways.  We have the closing-print and volume at the lows of today’s range, which suggests that the bears are in control of Crude Oil Futures at this time.

Crude Oil 64 Anchor Chart:
Crude Oil 64 Anchor
The 64-anchor chart of Crude Oil Futures shows us falling off the highs of the price wedge back to $100 just before testing the 103.07 resistance zone overhead.  We now find price-action trading in the MIDDLE of this anchor chart, which is always going to be the most challenging area on the chart.

Crude Oil 16 Anchor Chart:
Crude Oil 16 Anchor
Crude Oil fell through the lows of the bullish price channel, testing the support zone at 99.57.  This is a very good example of a market that is currently “priced at a discount” and we want to sell short with Crude Oil so we will stay patient to wait for selling opportunities at a premium price.

Our plan for trading Crude Oil will be to wait and sell short when prices move off these highs.  Our ideal entry location short will be at 100.76 with a profit-target below us at 99.57 and 98.94.


Gold VIP Chart:
Gold VIP Chart
Gold pushed lower today, but in a very sloppy session that felt like we were trading sideways.  The volume and the closing-print were both at the lows, which suggest this bearish market-personality will continue into Wednesday.

Gold 64 Anchor Chart:
Gold 64 Anchor
The 64-anchor chart on Gold shows us continuing to move lower into the buy-zone below the support at 1287.7.  The next stop on the way down will be 1262.8 and then we have the opportunity to move lower to 1227.3.

Gold 16 Anchor Chart:
Gold 16 Anchor
We missed the entry short from last night’s newsletter, and today we see another set of selling opportunities at 1288.5 and 1294.8 as we continue to push lower.

Our plan on Gold is to stay patient and sell when price moves to a ‘premium’ by testing the sell-zones we have overhead at 88.5 and 94.8.  Our profit-target for the short-sellers are down at 1266.3 and 1260.1.

Mini-Russell :

Mini-Russell VIP Chart:
Russell VIP Chart
The Mini-Russell pushed higher today after a very bullish session to begin the week on Monday.  We can see the buyers were in control from the opening-bell with the open at the highs.  The volume was mostly at the lows, which suggests that today’s closing-print at the highs may pullback before we go higher on Wednesday to test the prior-week-highs at 1193.8

Mini-Russell 64 Anchor Chart:
Russell 64 Anchor
The Mini-Russell is pushing higher this evening, directly into the highs of this price wedge and just a few points shy of testing the sell-zone overhead at 1194.0.  We can see the $1200 big-round-number is just above us, and that will act as a price-magnet for the buyers going into the end of the week.

Mini-Russell 16 Anchor Chart:
Russell 16 Anchor
As the Mini-Russell pushes higher we want to buy-a-pullbacks at a discounted price, so we have a bullish price channel on the 16-anchor chart and we want to get ‘long’ at the lows of this price channel and use the buy-zones we’ve defined below us.

Our plan for the Mini-Russell is to buy at a discount when price pulls back to the 1180.4, 1176.4, or 1170.0 zones, and we will use profit-targets above us at 1191.0, 1195.7, and of course the big-round-number at 1200.0.

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