Monday, March 10, 2014

Day Trading Gold, Crude Oil, Euro, and E-Mini | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 03/10/14

“When one door closes, another one opens; but we often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door that we do not see the one which has opened for us. - Alexander Graham Bell

Reflections from Today:

·       Friday’s Trades:
o   Crude Oil: Sell @ 102.68 (winner)
o   Gold:  Buy @ 1326.6 (Winner)
o   Mini-Russell: Sideways, No trade
·       Markets Today:
o   Crude Oil:      197t (-1.66%) @ 100.99
o   Gold:              174t (+0.06%) 1340.2
o   Mini-Russell: 114t (-0.15%) @ 1200.2
·       News Today:
o   No Major Economic News in the US today
o   Traders dealing with Daylight Savings Time, clocks pushed ahead 1-hour
o   Low Volume after Daylight Savings Time begins in the US
o   Weak Trade Deficit from China got markets moving overnight
o   Malaysia Jet still missing as of this time
o   Drama continues between Russia & Crimea, impact on markets has been very limited
·       This Day In History:
o   Mar 10, 1876First telephone call was made by Alexander Graham Bell, saying “Mr. Watson, come here I need you.”
o   Mar 10, 1969James Earl Ray is sentenced to Prison for 99 years for the murder of Martin Luther King, Jr.
o   Mar 10, 2000NASDAQ closes at a record-high 5048.62, absolute peak in the market at that time
§  25% y/y (87% in 1999)
§  Stocks trading at 120 times earnings
§  Majority of companies < 2 years old, never reported a profit
§  Plunges 60% over the next 12-months
·       News Tomorrow
o   No Major News in the US on Tuesday
o   Listening for news from Russia
o   5:00am EST:  (IT) GDP

Economic News for Tomorrow:

Economic News Tomorrow
We do not have any major economic news on the calendar for Tuesday March 11th, which means we will be listening for commentary out of Russia as well as being ready for ANYTHING that may come out tomorrow during the trading session. 

We do have some minor news in the US at 10:00am EST, however we do not expect that to move the markets, but we will be watching nonetheless.

Day trading plan for Tomorrow:

Crude Oil:

VIP Chart:
Crude Oil VIP Chart
The VIP Chart of Crude Oil shows us a few very important clues this evening as we prepare for tomorrow’s trading opportunities.

First, the narrow trading-range from today’s session is a big clue that tomorrow will likely be a much larger trading-range type of session. 

Remember, the BIG move on Crude Oil (reacting to news from china) was overnight in the London trading session, so the range WAS large overall today on Crude Oil, but the range in the US Session was very small, so we will be looking for a breakout of this range and an extension higher or lower going into tomorrow’s trading session.

Keep an eye out above and below today’s range for support and resistance targets listed on this evening’s VIP chart.

Anchor Chart:
Crude Oil 55 Anchor Chart
We can see that Crude Oil is on the EDGE and about to slip and fall lower this week, but we have some big support levels in our way right now that need to be broken first.
The 55 anchor chart of Crude Oil shows us sitting on top of the big-round-number of 100.00 as well as the moving-averages acting as support right here. 

These two levels of support are the only thing stopping us from collapsing down to the next buy-zone at 98.09.

The 21 anchor chart of Crude Oil shows a lot more details that we can use in our Live Trade Room tomorrow morning. 

Crude Oil 21 Anchor Chart
We can see there are some more support levels that we didn’t see on the slower anchor chart.  Now we have a trend-line and a buy-zone at 100.72 acting as support, and we can easily see that below the big-round-number of 100.00 we still have a clear path lower to the 97.78 profit-target for the sellers.

My goal will be to look for selling opportunities tomorrow below 100.00 with a nice runner profit-target down at 99.00 and 97.78.

The 13 anchor chart of Crude Oil shows us just how sloppy the last few hours of price-action have been around this big-round-number of 101.00. 

Crude Oil 13 Anchor Chart
Crude Oil is trading at the LOWS of this range right now, and if I want to sell I need to wait to sell at a PREMIUM rather than selling at a DISCOUNT.  I don’t want to sell at the lows of this range, so I am going to wait patiently to see where this goes from here.

My goal this evening is to sell short at the 101.88 sell-zone and use the zone below us at 100.72 as a profit-target.

Looking for Gold and Mini-Russell Charts for tomorrow?

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