Thursday, March 27, 2014

Day Trading Crude Oil, Gold, E-Mini Russell | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 03/27/14

“Study while others are sleeping; work while others are loafing; prepare while others are playing; and dream while others are wishing.”William Arthur Ward
Reflections from Today:
·      Today’s Trades:
o   Crude Oil: 
§  Crude Oil pushed higher, as expected
§  No trade for me around big-round-number
o   Gold:
§  Just missed the entry @ 1308.2 (1307.6)
§  Profit-targets below were achieved @ 1292.3
o   Mini-Russell: 
§  Sell short @ 1160.2
§  Profit-target @ 1147.1, 1143.5
§  $1,500 profit per contract
·      Markets Today:
o   Crude Oil: 
§  Bullish overnight, sideways in US session
§  167 ticks of range (typical)
§  Closing-print @ 101.38 (+1.09%)
o   Gold:
§  Bearish price-action, below 1300.00
§  180 ticks of range (wide)
§  Closing-print @ 1292.0 (-1.03%)
o   Mini-Russell:
§  Slightly bearish w/ consolidation
§  170 ticks of range (narrow, as expected)
§  Closing-print @ 1148.1 (-0.42%)
·      News Today:
o   News was mixed today, and markets reacted accordingly
o   8:30am:  GDP:  ‘softer’ growth than 3rd quarter, not as bad as expected
o   8:30am:  Jobless Claims: continue to fall lower, 4-week average is lowest in 6-months
o   10:00am:  Pending Home Sales:  9 months in a row of lower pending home sales, bad weather in the South and Northeast to blame
·      This Day In History:
o   Mar 27, 1884:  The first long-distance phone call was made between Boston and New York
o   Mar 27, 1964:  Magnitude 9.2 earthquake rocks Alaska, killing 117 people and creating a tsunami that traveled over 9,000 miles
o   Mar 27, 1998:  FDA in the US approves Viagra (kids, be sure to ask your parents about this one!)
·      News Tomorrow
o   7:30pm:  (JPY) Consumer Prices & Employment Rate
o   5:30am: (GBR) GDP
o    6:00am: (EUR) Economic Sentiment
o   8:30am: (US) Personal Income
o   9:55am: (US) Consumer Confidence
o   End of Month, End of 1st Quarter around the corner!

Economic News for Tomorrow:

Friday morning is FILLED with important economic news that we will be watching closely in our Live Trade Room, starting with news from Europe and then finishing the week with Red-Star News in the US session.

We begin on Friday in Europe with news from GDP and Economic Sentiment.  This is important information for traders in both Europe and the US. 

If you’re trading in Europe you can expect a very active session from 3am to 7am EST. 

If you’re in the US you need to pay close attention to the market-personality at the opening-bell because lately we have seen the moves happen in the European session and when the opening-bell rings in the US we have to wait patiently for the market-personality to pick up once again.

In the US session tomorrow we have Red-Star News from Personal Income at 8:30am, followed by Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am before we finish up the morning around 11:30am EST.

Please remember that Friday’s are always going to be shorter trading days than any other day of the week. 

We do not trade the afternoon session in the US on Friday and we try to take our profit and hit the weekend as soon as we see the market-personality shift after 10:45am EST on Fridays.

Trading opportunities for Tomorrow:

Crude Oil:
Yesterday on Crude Oil we did not have a trade because we were trading around the big-round-number of $100.00.

Crude Oil VIP Chart:  Crude Oil moved higher in the London Overnight session and produced a large ‘gap up’ for the US session traders.  After we opened in the US we traded sideways all session, which is why the VIP chart shows a narrow trading-range and volume in the middle of the range.  This tells us that we have the door WIDE open for a big drop back down to 100.00 on Friday or a push higher to 102.44.

Crude Oil 89 Anchor Chart: Crude Oil pushed higher today, getting away from the $100 big-round-number, however we can see plenty of room before the buyers have to deal with the resistance overhead starting at 103.02.

Crude Oil 48 Anchor Chart:  The 48-anchor shows Crude Oil running directly into the sell-zone at 101.75, which tells us that these buyers are going to have to put in some more work if they want to test the next resistance zone at 103.07 above us.

Crude Oil 12 Anchor Chart:  Crude Oil pushed higher overnight and then traded with a ‘rounded top’ (reversal pattern) in the US session today.  This lack of buyer strength suggests a short-term pullback to the 100.87 or 100.39 where we will be looking for buying opportunities on Friday with a profit-target at 102.38.

We will be watching VERY closely and we may decide to skip the buying if the market-personality suggests that we are collapsing back to the big-round-number at $100.

Yesterday on Gold we called a trade short @ 1308.2; however, we missed the entry by only a few ticks.  Price-action later tumbled to ALL of our profit-targets!

Gold VIP Chart:  Today we opened below the lows from Wednesday, and with a very narrow trading-range and a closing-print at the lows we have the door WIDE OPEN for a big move down on Friday.  Notice the bearish price channel we have added to the chart this evening, which can be used as support and resistance levels for tomorrow.

Gold 89 Anchor:  We have fallen off the highs of this price wedge and have now tested the major support at 1287.0, which was exactly we have been expecting since the beginning of the week.  Now we need to see where the sellers want to go from here.

Gold 48 Anchor:  We have broken the lows of this bullish price channel and have fallen almost to the support zone at 1287.0.  We still have some more room to push lower!

Gold 12 Anchor:  we can see the bearish trend continues with lower-lows and lower-highs so we are looking for selling opportunities at 1295.2 and 1298.4 with profit-targets below us at 1285.2 and 1280.9.

Mini-Russell :
Yesterday on Mini-Russell we called a trade short @ 1160.2 and took both profit-targets for a profit of $1,500 per contract.

Mini-Russell VIP Chart:  Just as we expected, the Mini-Russell traded in a narrow range today with a slightly-bearish tone to the market-personality.  Very sloppy candlesticks with big wicks tell us today was a sloppy session in the US.

Mini-Russell 89 Anchor Chart:  We have now finally tested the lows of the bullish price channel on the 89-anchor.  This tells us that moving LOWER from here will take some work from the sellers. 

We expect to see some “algo-buying” enter the market tomorrow at the lows of this price channel, however we don’t know exactly where, it could be as low as 1125.2 so we may still move lower on Friday.

Mini-Russell 48 Anchor Chart:  We have broken the lows of the sideways price wedge and tested the support at 1141.1 just as we had anticipated earlier this week.  We have selling opportunities around 1161.7 so we will be looking for a bounce off this support, followed by selling opportunities.

Mini-Russell 12 Anchor Chart:  The Mini-Russell is trading sideways into the overnight session this evening, but we still have a bearish trend to follow.  We can see selling opportunities overhead at 1149.0 and 1154.5 with profit-targets below us at 1143.2 and 1134.1

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