Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Day Trading Crude Oil, Gold, E-Mini Russell | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 03/26/14

BIG Winner on Mini-Russell!
“Success is not the key to happiness. Happiness is the key to success. If you love what you are doing, you will be successful.”Albert Schweitzer

Reflections from Today:
·      Today’s Trades:
o   Crude Oil: 
§  Big Winner!  Buy 99.11, profit-target at 100.00
§  $1,000 profit per contract
o   Gold:
§  Big Winner!  Sell 1315.4, profit-target at 1304.6
§  $1,000 profit per contract
o   Mini-Russell: 
§  Big Winner!  Sell 1183.2, profit-target at 1155.4
§  $2,000 profit per contract
·      Markets Today:
o   Crude Oil: 
§  Range-bound market today
§  Continues to trade around $100.00
§  135 ticks of range (typical)
§  Closing-print @ 100.23 (+1.03%)
o   Gold:
§  Sellers in control, moving lower (as we expected)
§  178 ticks of range (typical)
§  Closing-print @ 1305.0 (-0.49%)
o   Mini-Russell:
§  Sellers in control, moving lower
§  350 ticks of range (wide)
§  Closing-print @ 1152.0 (-1.84%)
·      News Today:
o   8:30am:  Durable Goods Orders; headline beats expectations, but deduct for autos and aircraft and this does NOT support a rebound in manufacturing sector of the US as of today
o   10:30am:  Crude Oil Inventories; inventories at highest levels since November 2013, demand was higher, causing markets to trade sideways
·      This Day In History:
o   Mar 26, 1945:  The Battle of Iwo Jima ends after 35 days, 22,000 Japanese killed and 4,500 US killed, over an island that was soon found to be useless for the US Military.
o   Mar 26, 1954:  C. Walter Lillehei performs the first successful open-heart surgery in Minnesota, paving the way for many successful surgeries and thousands of lives saved.
o   Mar 26, 1979:  OPEC Cartel declares it will increase Crude Oil prices by 9% in one single day, from $13.34 to $14.55, igniting a massive global inflation period that lasted more than half a decade
·      News Tomorrow
o   5:30am: (GBR) Retail Sales
o   8:30am: (US) Jobless Claims & GDP
o   10:00am: (US) Pending Home Sales
o   10:30am: (US) Natural Gas Inventories
o   End of Month & first quarter 2014 coming soon!  

Economic News for Tomorrow:

Thursday Economic News
Tomorrow we have a lot of important news to work with, and with the end of the month and end of the first quarter around the corner we are excited to see more volatility like we have seen this week already.

We begin tomorrow morning from Europe, with Retail Sales at 5:30am EST.  We have Europe’s economy get back on track very quickly over the last few weeks, and tomorrow morning’s Retail Sales will be another big clue for what’s coming from Europe.

In the US morning session we have two (2) Red-Star News events to work with starting at 8:30am EST from Jobless Claims and GDP. 

These are considered ‘Red-Star News’ which means these reports will have the largest impact on volume and volatility which means we want to be paying close attention to the trading opportunities that follow… and remember to leave a “runner” profit-target when you have Red-Star News to work with!

Later in the US morning session we have Pending Home Sales at 10:00am EST, followed by an exciting opportunity for Natural Gas traders to trade their inventory report at 10:30am EST.

As always, we love seeing all of this important news on the schedule because this will guarantee many trading opportunities for us on Thursday in our Live Trade Room!

Trading opportunities for Tomorrow:

Crude Oil:
Crude Oil Trade called 03/25/14
Yesterday’s newsletter we called a trade buying at 99.11 and taking profit at 100.00 and this trade earned almost $1,000 per contract!

Crude Oil appears to want to push higher, but the inventory report we saw today, along with the big-round-number of $100 right below us this evening we are suspicious that these buyers may not be able to keep these prices above $100 so we are looking for a price-reversal opportunity around 100.50 and back down to $100.00 and then we will buy the 99.97 area support with a target up around 100.86 at new highs.

Gold Trade called 03/25/14
Yesterday on Gold we called the short at 1315.4 with a profit-target below at 1304.6, earning over $1,000 profit per contract.

Just like we discussed in last night’s newsletter, we were expecting a drop in Gold prices and that is EXACTLY what we got.  We have lower-lows and lower-highs as we moved below the key moving-averages on the anchor charts.

Our plan for Gold is to sell at a premium, so we wait to sell at 1308.2, or 1313.3 with profit-targets below us at 1297.2 and 1292.3

Mini-Russell :

Russell trade called 03/25/14
Yesterday on Mini-Russell we called a MONSTER winning trade, selling short at 1183.2 and taking profit at 1155.4, earning almost $2,000 per contract!

The Mini-Russell had ANOTHER monster range-day today, moving over 350 ticks from start to finish and all of it was DOWN.  This sets the stage for a range-bound market on Thursday after such a ‘marathon’ type of day we saw today.

The charts (89 & 48 charts) tell us that we have more room to move lower, but we do NOT want to sell at the current lows, we want to sell at a premium so we will wait patiently to sell at 1155.1, 1158.9 or 1166.4 with a profit-target at 1147.1, 1143.5 and 1140.0.

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