“If you can imagine it, you can achieve it; if you can dream it, you can become it.”–William Arthur Ward
Reflections from Today:
· Today’s Trades:
o 3 Markets, 3 Profitable Trading opportunities last night
o Crude Oil:
§ Buy lows, sell highs, using 100.00
§ Sell @ 1318.8, waiting for profit-target @ 1301.0
§ Sell @ 1187.4, profit-target hit @ 1165.9
· Markets Today:
o Crude Oil:
§ Russia keeps price higher
§ Manufacturing in Asia pushes price lower
§ Rollercoaster ride today!
§ Sideways-trading-range around $100.00
§ 145 ticks of range (typical)
§ Closing-print @ 99.23 (-0.18%)
§ Asia slows down, Europe speeds up, US stuck in Neutral
§ 120 ticks of range (typical)
§ Closing-print @ 1311.9 (+0.22%)
§ Manufacturing news & profit taking at 1200
§ Rollercoaster ride today!
§ 221 ticks of range (wide)
§ Closing-print @ 1173.3 (+0.02%)
· News Today:
o 9:00am: Home Price Index shows strong gain in home prices in January (no more bad weather to blame)
o 10:00am: New Home Sales miss the target, but within expectations
o 10:00am: Consumer Confidence shatters expectations (82.3), highest since April 2008, important factors were ‘expectations for the future’
o Hidden Gem today @ 10:00: State Street Investor Confidence shows ‘institutional investors’ buying global equities at a very strong pace
o 4:30pm: Crude Oil API-Inventories (important!)
§ +6.3M Barrels (higher supply)
§ 5th straight build, largest build since Nov ’13)
§ We will use this with tomorrow’s inventory report @ 1030am
· This Day In History:
o Mar 25, 1809: Farmers Exchange Bank of Rhode Island becomes the first bank failure in the US after issuing $800,000 in loans against an asset worth only $45.00
o Mar 25, 1966: Bank of America of California proposes the ‘Bank Americard’, which is backed by VISA, and becomes the first Credit Card to hit the entire population in the United States.
· News Tomorrow
o 8:30am EST: Durable Goods Orders
o 10:30am EST: Crude Oil Inventories
o Heads Up! GDP is released on Thursday morning
Economic News for Tomorrow:
Wednesday morning brings more Red-Star News in the US morning session so we will be looking forward to many more trading opportunities tomorrow morning.
We begin on Wednesday with Durable Goods Orders, which is a Red-Star News event, which means we expect to see more volume and volatility than any other news events tomorrow.
The most important thing to remember regarding ‘Red-Star News’ is that when the news comes out we will stay very patient to let the ‘chaos’ work itself out, and then we will find the new trend and hold a RUNNER PROFIT-TARGET because we want to find a BIG MOVE that follows the Red-Star News.
Another very important thing to remember for tomorrow is that we have Crude Oil Inventories.
Wednesdays are always an exciting day for Crude Oil traders, HOWEVER, you need to know how to trade it properly.
First, tomorrow will most likely be very sloppy for Crude Oil price-action BEFORE the news comes out at 10:30am EST. For that reason, we always try to stay conservative and only take those ‘perfect’ patterns ahead of the news release.
Second, we will sit-on-hands 15-minutes before the news (10:15) and then also wait patiently for 15-minutes after the news is released (10:45) so we can look for a new trend and then FOLLOW that trend. We often get ‘chopped up’ when we try and be the first person into a new trade immediately after the report is released.
Third, forget what the news SAYS, and focus on trading the REACTION. As hard as we try, we cannot be perfect in PREDICTING where this crazy market will go after 10:30am EST on Wednesdays so don’t even try… focusing on finding the new trend and then trading WITH that new trend.
Trading opportunities for Tomorrow:
In last night’s newsletter we called a trade LONG on Crude Oil that achieved the profit-target at 100.06.
Crude Oil continues to remain ‘stuck’ around the big-round-number of $100.00. As long as we are within “striking-distance” of this big-round-number we will continue to trade this as a sideways-trading-range.
Our plan is to buy the lows, sell the highs, and stay the heck away from that nasty big-round-number at $100.
In last night’s newsletter we called a trade SHORT on Gold that we are still waiting to reach our final profit-target.
Gold has broken the long-term bullish trend and moved below the key moving-averages on ALL of our anchor charts. The ONLY thing keeping us from aggressively selling short is the support zone at 1314.9 on the 48-anchor chart.
In last night’s newsletter we called a trade SHORT on Mini-Russell and we achieved our final profit-target.
Mini-Russell appears to have ‘stalled out’ after reaching the 1200.00 milestone 2 week ago.
With poor manufacturing news from China and the US causing some concern over the strength of the trend, we read this morning that equities are still on the radar of ‘institutional investors’ so this short-term consolidation sideways shouldn’t last much longer.
We are focused on selling the highs and buying the lows of this short term sideways-trading-range this evening and into tomorrow.
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