Monday, March 3, 2014

Day Trading Crude Oil, Gold, and E-Mini’s | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 03/03/14

It is not the rich man’s son that the young struggler for advancement has to fear in the race for life, nor his nephew, nor his cousin. Let him look out for the dark horse in the boy who begins by sweeping out the office.   -- Andrew Carnegie

Reflections from Today:

·       Markets Today:
o   Crude Oil:                  227-ticks (+2.05%) @ 104.87
o   Gold:                         243-ticks (+1.63%) @ 1350.2
o   Mini-Russell:              171-ticks (-0.52%) @ 1176.1
·       News Today:
o   Russia continues its occupation of Crimea region of Ukraine, pushing Crude Oil higher
o   China Manufacturing hits 8-month low, pushing Gold higher, and equities lower
o   Personal Income:  Rises +0.3%, exceeding expectations
o   ISM Manufacturing:   Rises to +53.2 from a weather-depressed 51.3 in January, suggesting a rebound in Manufacturing is underway
o   Construction Spending:  Rises +0.1% m/m and 9.3% y/y
·       This Day In History:
o   March 3rd, 1845:  Florida becomes the 27th State of the United States of America, 100-years later NASCAR is born (coincidence?)
o   March 3rd, 1847: Alexander Graham Bell, father of the telephone, is born in Scotland
o   March 3rd, 1867:  U.S. Secretary of State William H. Seward agrees to purchase the Alaskan territories from Russia for $7 million -- a price so preposterous that newspapers around the country immediately tag the deal “Seward’s Folly” and christen Alaska “the polar bear garden.”
o   March 3rd, 1901JP Morgan & Andrew Carnegie form the First Billion-Dollar Corporation @ $1.4B USD.  This number is 7% of the US GDP at that time, and 4-times the budget of the US Government.  (today’s value would be $1.1 Trillion)
o   March 3rd, 1931“Star-Spangled Banner” is adopted as the national anthem
o   March 3rd, 1991:  The world is shocked by the beating of Los Angeles truck driver, Rodney King, Jr.
·       News Tomorrow
o   Ongoing developments from Russia & Ukraine
o   No Major News in the US
o   4:30am EST: (GB) Construction Spending
o   6:16pm EST:  (JPY) PMI Index
o   7:30pm EST: (AUD) GDP
o   8:45pm EST: (CN) PMI Index

Economic News for Tomorrow:

We don’t have any major economic news on tomorrow’s schedule, which tells us that price-action will be determined by whatever new developments come out of Russia as well as any domestic responses to Russia possibly from the White House.

Day trading plan for Tomorrow:

Crude Oil:

VIP Chart:
Crude Oil VIP Chart
Crude Oil ‘gapped-up’ over Sunday night and into Monday morning, but by the time we opened here in the US morning session we had already push up to 105.00 area so most of the day today was sideways in the US.  The volume and the closing-print in the middle tells us to be patient for more info going into the opening-bell on Tuesday.

Anchor Chart:
Crude Oil 89 Anchor Chart
We’ve pushed higher above the resistance at 104.34 in today’s trading session, and it looks like the next resistance level on the 89 anchor chart is at 107.95, but it’s going to take a small miracle to push another $2.00 in Tuesday’s session so we will have to wait and see!

Crude Oil 21 Anchor Chart
The 21 anchor on Crude Oil shows us trading higher in a bullish price channel, and we have a perfect buying opportunity at the 103.25 zone which is also the lows of the bullish price channel.  We have a profit-target above us at 105.40 which will be easy profit for the buyers.

Crude Oil 13 Anchor Chart
The 13 anchor chart shows us trading in a sideways, consolidated market-personality, which is a big change from the bullish price-action we saw on the slower anchor charts.  Remember, as of 900am EST this morning when this market opened for the day we had ALREADY pushed higher on Sunday night, which means the US session was mostly sideways. 

Look for selling opportunities below the 104.00 big-round-number and use the 103.11 buy-zone as your profit-target.

Gold VIP Chart

Gold 89 Anchor Chart

Gold 21 Anchor Chart

Gold 13 Anchor Chart


Russell VIP Chart

Russell 34 Anchor Chart

Russell 21 Anchor Chart

Russell 13 Anchor Chart

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