Wednesday, March 5, 2014

5 Ways to Trade Crude Oil for Thursday | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 03/05/14



Winston Churchill
A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. - Winston Churchill




Reflections from Today:

·       From Yesterday:
o   Crude Oil:  Short < 102.62, Profit-target @ 101.02
§  Wait for Inventory News @ 1030am
o   Gold: Buy @ 1333.3, Profit-target @ 1340.4
o   Mini-Russell: sideways-trading-range, buy lows, sell highs
·       Markets Today:
o   Crude Oil: 268ticks, (-2.30%) @ 101.95
o   Gold: 93ticks, (+0.21%) @ 1337.3
o   Mini-Russell: 67ticks, (-0.07%) @ 1204.6
·       News Today:
o   ADP Employment Report comes in lower (139k v. 150k)
o   ISM Non-Manuf:  comes in lower, blame it on weather
o   Crude Oil Inventories:  inventories higher, demand lower (bearish)
o   Beige Book: Bad Weather, 8 of 12 districts growing, waiting for March numbers before more taper-talk
·       This Day In History:
o   Mar 5, 1770:  Boston Massacre occurs, pre-revolution anger towards British Troops
o   Mar 5, 1946:  Winston Churchill delivers the famous ‘Iron Curtain’ speech about the USSR.
o   Mar 5, 1963:  The Hula-Hoop was patented in the US, selling 25-million in 4-months.
o   Mar 5, 1997:  North and South Korean representatives met for the first time in 25 years for Peace Talks
·       News Tomorrow
o   3:00am EST: (GB) Home Price Index
o   7:00am EST: (GB) Bank of England Rates Announcement
o   7:45am EST: (EUR) ECB Rates Announcement
o   8:30am EST: (US) Jobless Claims
o   10:00am EST: (US) Factory Orders
o   10:30am EST: (US) Natural Gas Inventories

Economic News for Tomorrow:



We have an exciting session ahead of us on Thursday with a day filled with important news from around the globe to help get these markets moving!

Economic News Tomorrow
We begin tomorrow morning in Europe, specifically Great Britain, with news from Home Prices followed by the Bank of England rate announcement at 7:00am EST.
After we hear from GB, we then move to the ECB for another announcement regarding rates at 7:45am and the press conference will be at 8:30am EST in the ECB.

The headline news for Thursday is at 8:30am EST in the US when we get Jobless Claims for the week.  All eyes are focused on Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report and Thursday’s Jobless Claims will give an excellent leading indication of what to expect on Friday.

At 10:00am EST on Thursday we hear from Factory Orders, which is always an important news report for Crude Oil futures because those factories need to ship products around the world and that requires Crude Oil, as well as Natural Gas to heat and cool those factories.  Look for Crude Oil and Natty-Gas to be the big movers around 10am on Thursday.

o   3:00am EST: (GB) Home Price Index
o   7:00am EST: (GB) Bank of England Rates Announcement
o   7:45am EST: (EUR) ECB Rates Announcement
o   8:30am EST: (US) Jobless Claims
o   10:00am EST: (US) Factory Orders
o   10:30am EST: (US) Natural Gas Inventories

Day trading plan for Tomorrow:

Crude Oil:

VIP Chart:

Crude Oil VIP Chart
Crude Oil pushed lower this morning after the concerns over Russia have passed and after we saw a bearish Crude Oil Inventory report this morning at 10:30am EST.  Just like we had recommended on Tuesday evening, if you waited patiently for the news to come out and then traded that new (bearish) direction you had hard time not making money today on Crude Oil Futures.

This evening we have a very wide trading-range on Crude Oil, which suggests that tomorrow will be much narrower of range, and possibly an inside, range-bound market.  We will look for the necessary clues tomorrow morning at the opening-bell when we watch the opening-print and see WHO has taken control over this market going into Thursday.

I have support levels below us at 100.65, 100.03 and 99.26, which will be used as profit-targets for selling opportunities on Thursday.

Anchor Chart:
Crude Oil 55 Anchor
It appears the sellers won this battle at the 104.34 – 101.81 resistance zone on the 55-anchor chart.  We went as high as 105.29 earlier this week and now we are moving lower with a sellers-target down at 98.09.  We can see a small bit of support at 100.43, but I have a feeling this big-round-number at 100.00 is going to be too strong to keep this price-action from pushing even lower on Thursday.

Crude Oil 21 Anchor
The Crude Oil market appears to be in a ‘free-fall’ this evening when you look at this 21 anchor chart.  We see almost a straight-line down towards the next buy-zone at 100.42.  We have a difficult choice to make this evening on Crude Oil; we don’t want to sell short at these lows, we want to wait and sell short at a premium after a small retracement.  I would love to sell the 103.07 zone above us, but I don’t think we get there, so I will use the faster timeframes to tell me the exact entry points.

Crude Oil 13 Anchor
The 13 anchor chart of Crude Oil gives us a lot more information to use this evening, but we STILL don’t have a lot to work with after this massive sell-off in today’s session. 



My goal for trading Crude Oil is to sell short after a retracement up to the 101.73, 102.19 or 102.96 levels this evening and into tomorrow.  I have a profit-target below me at 100.30 and 100.00 for the selling opportunity.


Looking for Gold and Mini-Russell?  Log into your Membership Account with SchoolOfTrade and they are included with this evening’s Live Trade Room Recording.

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1 comment:

  1. Thanks for the 2nd part with the charts! Much appreciated.

    ReplyDelete

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