Wednesday, February 12, 2014

9 Ways to Trade Thursday; BIG Moves mean BIG Profit | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 02/12/14

"Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like hard work."

Reflections from Today:
·       Trade:  Gold earns $1,000 per contract (Buy @ 85.2, Sell @ 95.4)
·       Trade:  Crude Oil earns $1,000 per contract (Buy @ 99.81, Sell @ 100.90)
·       Crude Oil; 134t Range, -0.13% @ 100.28
·       Gold ; 115t Range, +0.02% @ 1290.9
·       Mini-Russell; 124t Range, +0.52% @ 1130.3
·       Equities re-approaching all-time highs!
·       Today: Crude Oil Inventories higher than expected; Crude Oil drops
·       Today: Treasury Budget; $144B today vs. $290B 1 year ago (Jobless Benefits)
·       Feb 12 1997; Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) reaches 800.00 for the first time, doubled in value in 6 years
·       Feb 12 1999; Senate acquits President Bill Clinton of impeachment
·       Thursday: Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Janet Yellen (Red-Star News)

Gold Trade from Last Night:
Gold Trade Call

Crude Oil Trade from Last Night:
Crude Oil Trade Call

Economic News for Tomorrow:

Thursday morning is FILLED with important news, starting right out the gate at 8:30am EST.

We begin with Red-Star News from Jobless Claims and Retail Sales.

Jobless Claims fell sharply last week down to 331,000 which was a big surprise.  Tomorrow morning we expect to see a range from 325k – 336k so we will be looking for a number to be outside of that range to get the markets moving.

We also have Retail Sales tomorrow as well, which is another Red-Star News event at 8:30am EST.  If you recall, last month we had a relatively strong Retail Sales report, even with all the bad weather over the winter break, so tomorrow we will be anxious to see how the retail market is looking going into February.

Later in the session tomorrow we will hear once again from our new Fed Chairperson, Janet Yellen, as she delivers the second part of the semi-annual testimony on monetary policy in front of the Senate Banking Committee in Washington.

News for Tomorrow
8:30am EST:             Jobless Claims | Retail Sales
10:00am EST:          Business Inventories
10:30am EST:          Janet Yellen Speaks

Day trading plan for Tomorrow:

Crude Oil:

VIP Chart:
Crude Oil VIP Chart
The VIP chart of Crude Oil Futures is filled with clues this evening after we ended the day back at the 100.00 big-round-number and on top of last week’s highs.  We had a big GAP higher overnight which was erased today after the Crude Oil Inventories were reported much higher than they had expected.

My plan for tomorrow is to stay patient if this price-action gets stuck around the 100.00 big-round-number.  I will look for selling opportunities below 100.04, and buying opportunities above the 101.38 level.

Anchor Chart:
Crude Oil Anchor Chart
The Anchor chart of Crude Oil looks very bullish this evening.  We can see a bullish price channel and a green ‘cloud’ which tells us the buyers are clearly in control going into tomorrow…BUT…there is some signs of weakness on this chart because we have now traded back below the key moving-averages at 100.50 area and now we’re back in the slop and chop around the 100.00 big-round-number.

My plan for this evening and into tomorrow is to buy the lows of this bull price channel using the support zones at 100.25, 99.98, and 99.60.  My profit-targets overhead for the buying opportunities are at 101.09, 101.37, and 101.81.


VIP Chart:
Gold VIP Chart
The VIP Chart of Gold tells us that this price-action could go either way this evening and into tomorrow.  Today we saw a relatively-sideways range after trying (and failing) to get above the highs from Tuesday at 1294.4.  The big clue on this VIP chart is the volume profile, which shows volume at both the highs and the lows, telling us that ANYTHING is possible right now.

My plan for tomorrow is to sell short below 1287.6 with a profit-target down at 1245.9, and buy long above the 1296.4 with a profit-target at the big-round-number of 1300.0.

Anchor Chart:
Gold Anchor Chart
The anchor chart of Gold shows us a very bullish scenario going into Thursday, which tells us to be ready for buying opportunities this evening and tomorrow morning.
We can see a bullish price channel, higher-highs, higher-lows, above all the key moving-averages, and sitting on top of this easy buy-zone at 1290.2 and 1286.7.

My plan for this evening and into tomorrow is to buy these lows of the bullish price channel using the buy-zone as my guide at 1290.2.  I have a profit-target above me at 1296.4, 1298.7, and 1300.0.


VIP Chart:
Russell VIP Chart
The Mini-Russell had a roller-coaster type of day today, giving us plenty of buying and selling opportunity along the way.  Today we had a typical trading-range with a closing-print right in the middle of the range.  The big clue on this VIP chart is the previous week’s highs at 1127.7 which spoiled the fun for the buyers today.

My plan for tomorrow is to sell below 1125.3 with a profit-target down at 1113.8 and 1104.7, and buy above the 1135.7 with a profit-target at 1144.5 above.

Anchor Chart:
Russell Anchor Chart
The anchor chart on the Mini-Russell shows us trading in a very bullish price channel in the long term, however in the short term we can see lower-highs back below the 1131.7 highs which suggests that this move higher may have lost some momentum.

My plan for this evening and into tomorrow is to buy the support zones below me at 1126.0, 1124.8, and 1118.5 with profit-targets above me at 1135.7 and 1137.8.  If we happen to collapse and get price-action below the 1122.2 I will then look for selling opportunities down to a target at 1118.5.

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