Thursday, December 12, 2013

Day Trading Morning Prep 12/12/13;

7:30am EST

Focus-Points this morning:
·       Global Equities under selling-pressure this morning as traders fear the Fed will taper sooner-than-later
·       Traders in the US are waiting for Red-Star news from Retail Sales & Jobless Claims
·       Contract Rollover today for E-mini’s and Currency Futures
·       Gold tumbles on Fed Tapering speculation
·       E-Mini S&P is lower -.10%
·       FDAX is lower -.80%
·       US Dollar is higher +.05%
·       Gold is lower -1.70% (1235.90)
·       Crude Oil is higher +.30% (97.74)
·       EUR/USD is lower -.02%

Economic News on the schedule today:
Economic News Calendar
8:30am EST:             Jobless Claims | Retail Sales | Import Prices
10:00am EST:           Business Inventories

The Fed has been hogging the spotlight so far this week, but this morning all eyes turn to Jobs and Retail Sales news in the US as speculation continues that the Fed will begin tapering stimulus as early as next week.

This morning begins with 2 Red-Star news events at 8:30am EST which should get the party started bright and early in the session.

We begin with Retail Sales, where we will learn how strong the Holiday shopping season has been with Retail Sales, and we will be looking closely at the ‘ex-auto & ex-gasoline’ numbers within this report to get the most accurate look at how the holiday shopping season has been for retailers.

In addition, we also hear from Jobless Claims this morning at 8:30am EST. 

Econoday Says…

"Initial jobless claims for the November 30 week fell a very sizable 23,000 to 298,000 for the lowest level since September and the second lowest level of the recovery. In a reversal of prior special factors tied to the government shutdown and counting problems in California, initial claims have now fallen in 7 of the last 8 weeks with the 4-week average down for 5 weeks in a row and now at 322,250 for the lowest level since September. Jobless claims are coming down but holiday adjustments raise uncertainty for the latest week. The Labor Department warned that this year's late Thanksgiving is clouding the accuracy of its seasonal adjustments.

Later in the session today we hear from Business Inventories, which should keep the price-action moving into the lunch session in the US as we wrap up the morning.

Are any of these Red-Star news events today?
Yes, the first two news reports at 8:30am EST are considered Red-Star news which means (assuming nothing else happens) we will see more trading opportunities during this time than any other time in today’s session.  Look for patterns around this time, and remember that we always want to hold a runner profit-target when we trade during Red-Star news because the moves in price-action can be tremendous.

Which markets will be affected by this news the most today?
This week all eyes have been on the Fed and the possibility of a tapering in the month of December which has ALL our markets moving well.  We are going to be watching markets for high-percentage-trades this morning and we shouldn't have any trouble finding them.

DAX Anchor
FDAX Futures are moving lower this morning; we are looking for selling-opportunities with new lower-lows using our scalping-strategy.

Gold Anchor
Gold is moving lower this morning; we are looking for selling-opportunities at this time at resistance levels overhead and with new lower-lows.

Crude Oil Anchor
Crude Oil is trying to turn the corner to bullish this morning.  The long-term trend is bearish but in the short term we have buyers trying to take back control.  We are selling Crude Oil until we can get and stay above the 98.00 area.

Euro Anchor
The Euro is moving higher in the long-term trend; however, in the short term we’ve seen the sellers take control.  We will start looking for selling-opportunities below the 1.3750 area, and in the meantime we are looking for buying-opportunities.

Mini Russell anchor
Mini-Russell is bearish in the long-term trend this morning so we are going to be selling at resistance and with new lower-lows this morning until we get above the 1104.0 area at which time we can start looking for buying opportunities.

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