Thursday, December 5, 2013

Day Trading Morning Prep 12/05/13;

7:30am EST

Focus-Points this morning:
·       Traders prepare ahead of major news today and tomorrow from the US and ECB
·       In the US we have Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll News @ 830am EST
·       In the EU today is the Rate Decision for the ECB and BOE
·       Crude Oil trading at 5-week highs around 97.50 after inventories fell on Wednesday
·       Gold tumbles on speculation the Fed will Taper
·       Global Equities trading flat this morning, no change from Wednesday
Hang Seng is lower .05%
·       FDAX is flat +0.00%
·       E-Mini S&P is lower -.15%
·       EUR/USD is flat +0.00%
·       Gold is lower -1.25% [1,232.40]
·       Crude Oil is higher +.35% [97.57]

Economic News on the schedule today:
This morning we have a lot of important news on the calendar, starting with a glimpse into the retail sales from last week’s Black Friday.  We will look for today’s Chain Store Sales numbers to tell us how retailers did over the holiday weekend, which is an important look inside the minds of consumers in the US.  If consumers are spending, they are confident, and the economy will grow, giving the Fed more reasons to pull back the reins on the stimulus in the economy.

In the ECB we have the always-important ECB Rate Decision, which will undoubtedly affect the Euro and other major currencies along with Gold and the Dollar-Index.  Look for the press conference today at 8:30am EST to provide traders in the US session an opportunity to see some volatility from the reaction.

Jobless Claims and GDP will get the price-action moving well for us this morning so we will be looking for trading opportunities bright and early in the US morning session.  Jobless Claims have been pointing to a strong economy in the US with the 4-week average falling and continuing claims on the decline.

Later in the morning we hear from the manufacturing sector, which has been on a rollercoaster-ride as of lately, up and down.  Factory Orders at 10:00am EST will tell us if the bullish numbers from last month were here to stay or if we are back on the wagon once again.

7:30am EST:             Chain Store Sales (Black Friday Numbers)
7:45am EST:             ECB Rate Decision
8:30am EST:             Jobless Claims & GDP
8:30am EST:             ECB’s Draghi Press Conference
9:45am EST:             Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (minor)
10:00am EST:           Factory Orders

Are any of these Red-Star news events today?
Yes, the news at 8:30am EST from Jobless Claims and GDP are both considered to be Red-Star news.  This tells us that there will be the most trading opportunities around this time of the trading session.  We will be watching for a new trend to develop and then trade in the direction of that trend using simple entry patterns.

Which markets will be affected by this news the most today?
The two biggest news reports of the week are today and tomorrow.  Non-Farm Payroll in the US and today’s ECB Rate decision will have a lot of markets moving.  We can assume that ALL markets will be a little sluggish today as we go into the last big news of the year for the jobs market.

First, Gold and Currencies will be volatile heading into today’s ECB Rate Decision and into tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll news.

Second, Factory Orders and manufacturing will impact Crude Oil and Natural Gas trading today.

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