Thursday, November 7, 2013

Morning Prep 11/07/13;

7:30am EST
Focus-Points this morning:
·       European traders waiting for the ECB rate announcement 745am EST
·       US traders waiting for GDP & Jobless Claims news at 830am EST ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls
·       Hang Seng is lower -.70% (22,881)
·       FDAX is higher +.05% (9045)
·       Gold is lower -.30% (1,314.00)
·       Crude Oil is higher +.35% (95.13)
·       EUR/USD is flat +0.00% (1.3515)
·       E-Mini Dow is higher +.85% (15,746)
·       E-Mini S&P is higher +.45% (1,770.50)

Economic News on the schedule today:

November 7, 2013
In the US, third quarter GDP growth is expected to slow a bit from the second quarter pace of 2.5 percent. Today's GDP data will show how much momentum the economy had going into the government shutdown, and we always look forward to Jobless Claims providing us with ample trading opportunities today.

Economic News Worksheet
7:45am EST:             ECB Rate Decision
8:30am EST:             GDP
8:30am EST:             Jobless Claims

Jobless Claims News
Initial jobless claims in the October 26 week came in at 340,000, which was 10,000 below the prior week but more than 30,000 above the month-ago trend. Counting problems in California, tied to a computer changeover, are no longer inflating the numbers, nor are government contractors who were filing claims during the government shutdown in the first half of the month. Inflated by these factors, the 4-week average has risen sharply for 4 straight weeks, to 356,250 in the latest week which is the highest reading since April. Continuing claims continued to be less volatile than initial claims, up 31,000 to 2.881 million in the latest data which are for the October 19 week. The 4-week average has been steady, down 10,000 in the latest week to 2.879 million.

Are any of these Red-Star news events today?
Yes, both news events at 8:30am EST today are Red-Star news events.  Jobless Claims and GDP are expected to not only get more people trading this morning, but we should also see increased volatility and trading opportunities.  We remember to leave a ‘runner’ profit-target on days with Red-Star news.

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Markets we are watching this Morning

Euro Currency Futures:
Euro Prep
The Euro is trading sideways this morning ahead of the ECB rate announcement at 745am EST.  We want to see some better price-action on this set-up chart before we start looking for trading opportunities this morning. 

We can see a short-term trend higher with a bullish price-channel, however we still need to wait to see the market personality after the release of the news at 7:45am EST.  We will look for buying opportunities at the lows of the price-channel around 3460-3470 area.

Targets Above:  3592, 3638, 3684
Targets Below: 3450, 3424, 3387

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Gold Futures:
Gold Prep
Gold is another market that is waiting patiently for the news to be released later this morning from the ECB rates and the US GDP.  We can see a relatively narrow trading-range on this set-up chart with a slightly-bearish tone to the price-action.  We will be watching the reaction to the news very closely on Gold today and if this short-term trend continues to move lower we are selling short with targets below us.

Targets Above:  1322.0, 1326.8, 1332.4
Targets Below:  1308.8, 1305.2, 1300.5
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Crude Oil Futures:
Crude Oil Prep
Crude Oil is moving higher this morning on the set-up chart ahead of very important news from both the ECB and the US.  We can see the bullish price-channel along with a trend-line as support below us.  We will be looking for buying opportunities this morning considering this bullish ‘cloud’ on the set-up chart, however, we will have to trade around the news scheduled to be released at 8:30am EST today.

Targets Above:  95.40, 95.95, 96.63
Targets Below:  94.51, 94.24, 93.96

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Mini-Russell Futures:
Russell Prep
Mini-Russell is moving higher this morning in the pre-market ahead of major news at 830am EST, so things may change quickly after the news.  We can see a price-wedge on the set-up chart with a bullish tone to the price-action.  We will look to buy-the-lows at support and sell-the-high at resistance of the price-wedge with a focus on buying opportunities with the short-term trend.

Targets Above:  1106.0, 1108.3, 1110.0, 1114.8
Targets Below:  1094.2, 1090.0, 1084.2

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