Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Morning Prep 10/22/13; SchoolOfTrade.com

7:30am EST

Focus-Points this morning:
·       Markets trading in-balance ahead of today’s Non-Farm Payroll News
·       Today’s delayed Non-Farm Payroll news expected to be heavily ‘discounted’ due to Govt shutdown
·       China Home Prices rise for 9th straight month
·       Crude Oil trading at 3-months lows, below the $100.00 big-round-number
·       Gold -.25%
·       Crude Oil -.25%
·       USD -.05%
·       EUR -.05%
·       E-Mini S&P +.01%

Economic News on the schedule today:

8:30am EST:             US Non-Farm Payroll News
10:00am EST:           Construction Spending

4:30pm EST:             API Crude Oil Inventories (Prelim)

Levels this morning:

Euro Currency Futures:
VAH 3686 / VAL 3666
PHOD 3691 / PLOD 3653
Bullish = Open > 3691
Bearish = Open < 3653

Euro VIP Chart
The Euro is trading in a multi-day sideways range, with typical trading-range size as we go into today’s Non-Farm Payroll news in the US.  We can see the price-action tried to close at the highs on Monday afternoon but came off those highs slightly before the closing bell.  This morning we expect to see an opening-print in the middle of the range from Monday, which tells us to expect range-bound-trading ahead of the news at 830am EST, then we must watch the reaction to the news and trade accordingly.
Targets above:        3692, 3702, 3707, 3733
Targets below:        3653, 3643, 3637, 3625

Gold Futures:

VAH 1318.1 / VAL 1315.7
PHOD 1319.7 / PLOD 1313.5
Bullish = Open > 1319.7
Bearish = Open < 1313.5

Gold VIP Chart
Gold is trading in a narrow market personality this morning after spending the last 3 days inside the same trading-range.  Gold appears to be well-balanced ahead of today’s Non-Farm Payroll news in the US, and we expect to see an opening-print inside Monday’s trading-range, which suggests that today will be range-bound-trading until we get the news at 830am EST and we can see the reaction to that news in the price-action. 

Targets above:        1321.0, 1324.2, 1328.4, 1330.8
Targets below:        1311.2, 1303.4, 1300.4, 1296.1

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Crude Oil Futures:

VAH 100.60 / VAL 99.92
PHOD 100.70 / PLOD 99.41
Bullish = Open > 100.70
Bearish = Open < 99.41

Crude Oil VIP Chart
Crude Oil has been under pressure over the last week of trading, with price-action moving below the 100.00 big-round-number and marking 3-month lows in price.  Monday’s closing-print is a big clue going into today’s trading session because we have major news coming out at 830am EST, and the sellers may continue to push this price even lower.  We are expecting the opening-print to be at or below the PLOD this morning, which will tell us the sellers are still in control.  We will have to trade around the Non-Farm Payroll news at 830am EST, but once we find the trend we can get back to trading short below the PLOD this morning.

Targets above:        100.05, 100.60, 100.80, 101.04, 101.24, 101.44
Targets below:        99.06, 98.82. 98.23, 97.96, 97.73

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Mini-Russell Futures:

VAH 1113.5 / VAL 1109.0
PHOD 1116.2 / PLOD 1107.9
Bullish = Open > 1113.2
Bearish = Open < 1107.9

Russell VIP Chart
The Mini-Russell continues to push to new all-time highs along with the other e-mini’s in the US.  We can see price-action moving higher from day-to-day, however the closing-print on Monday suggests the sellers may have decided to take control over price-action as we head into the Non-Farm Payroll news today at 830am EST.  We are expecting an opening-print near the PLOD at 1107.9 so we will be watching closely to see if we open below the PLOD, at which point we will look for selling-opportunities down to the next support target below us.  We will have to wait to see how the price-action reacts to the Non-Farm Payroll news at 830am EST before we can make any strong predictions ahead of the opening-bell at 930am EST.

Targets above:        1112.0, 1113.5, 1116.2, 1118.4, 1120.6, 1121.3
Targets below:        1106.4, 1105.4, 1103.5. 1102.8, 1101.0, 1099.9 (1100.0)

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