Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Morning Prep 10/16/13;

7:30am EST

Focus-Points this morning:
·       Traders and analysts remain optimistic that the US Congress will find a resolution as the budget talks are getting closer to Thursday’s deadline
·       Debt ceiling negotiations expected to go down to the wire this evening, deadline is the 17th
·       UK employment data continues to improve, count falls for the 11th straight month

Thursday's debt-ceiling deadline is almost here. Expect a nervous session focused entirely on Washington.

The Federal government shutdown continues. Key economic indicators are not being reported due to lack of budget funding. This week, there will be no releases for the CPI, Treasury international capital, housing starts, industrial production, EIA natural gas, EIA petroleum, and leading indicators. Still on tap are the NAHB housing market index, the Beige Book, jobless claims, and Philly Fed manufacturing (Empire reported on Tuesday).

Economic News on the schedule today:
8:30am EST:             Consumer Price Index (delayed due to shutdown)
9:00am EST:             Treasury International Capital (delayed due to shutdown)
10:00am EST:           Housing Market Index

2:00pm EST:             Beige Book

Levels this morning:

Euro Currency Futures:
Euro VIP Chart
VAH 3505 / VAL 3489
PHOD 3534 / PLOD 3485
Bullish = Open > 3534
Bearish = Open < 3534

The Euro traded in a very narrow range on Tuesday but ended the day with a large move to the upside with a closing-print up near the highs.  This is bullish price-action going into yesterday’s close, so we will be looking to see if this market sentiment remains the same, or has changed this morning when the opening-bell rings at 8:20am EST. 
Targets above:        3545, 3563, 3572, 3585, 3592
Targets below:        3505, 3499, 3489

Gold Futures:
Gold VIP Chart
VAH 1275.4 / VAL 1265.2
PHOD 1277.6 / PLOD 1255.0
Bullish = Open > 1277.6
Bearish = Open < 1255.0

Gold traded in a wide range on Wednesday, spending most of the session near the highs of the day, ending the day just off the highs.  We know that Gold is being affected by this debt-ceiling debate in Washington, so we have been keeping a close eye on the price-action this week.  Look for the targets above us to be hit with a bullish open this morning.
Targets above:        1279.5, 1282.3, 1287.1, 1289.3, 1293.4, 1296.0
Targets below:        1275.4, 1270.8, 1265.2, 1259.6

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Crude Oil Futures:
Crude Oil VIP Chart
VAH 101.92 / VAL 101.38
PHOD 102.21 / PLOD 101.11
Bullish = Open > 102.21
Bearish = Open < 101.11

Crude Oil traded sideways on Tuesday, inside the range from Monday and last Friday in a very subdued market personality.  Tuesday’s session closed right on the lows of the day around the 101.00 big-round-number and we are looking for a bearish opening-print this morning after the opening-bell at 900am EST for us to keep selling short on Crude Oil.  Look for the prior week’s lows to be an easy target for the sellers today, and with that also comes the 100.00 big-round-number which is just a small move lower.
Targets above:        101.38, 101.64, 101.92, 102.30, 102.62, 102.79, 103.20
Targets below:        101.06, 100.60, 100.00

Mini Russell VIP Chart
Mini-Russell Futures:
VAH 1084.3 / VAL 1078.1
PHOD 1087.4 / PLOD 1074.1
Bullish = Open > 1087.4
Bearish = Open < 1074.1

The Mini-Russell traded lower on Tuesday, completely inside the range from Monday and last Friday, which suggests that the market sentiment is bearish, however those sellers are barely in control and the trend is very weak.  We are looking for a bearish opening-print this morning to get short the Mini-Russell using the 1069.8 and last week’s opening price as our immediate targets to the downside.
Targets above:        1088.5, 1100.0
Targets below:        1074.1, 1069.8, 1064.4, 1059.5, 1054.1, 1048.2

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