Thursday, October 10, 2013

Morning Prep 10/10/13;

7:30am EST

Focus-Points this morning:
·       The US Govt Shutdown enters into day #10
·       Overnight rumors suggest a temporary debt-ceiling extension for the US is in the works
·       Fitch rating agency says they are confident the US will find a solution for the debt-ceiling issue
·       Equity markets react positively to the rumors
·       US Traders reacting to FOMC Meeting Minutes, published Wednesday afternoon
·       US Traders prepare for Jobless Claims (confirmed to be released today),

Economic News on the schedule today:
Hooray! There's economic data today!
Jobless claims will offer needed clues on the health of the labor market while chain store sales will offer indications on consumer spending.

Before the Open:       Chain Store Sales
8:30am EST:             Jobless Claims | Import Export Prices
9:45am EST:             James Bullard Speaks
10:30am EST:           Nat Gas Inventories
2:00pm EST:             Treasury Budget

Levels this morning:

Euro Currency Futures:
VAH 3521 / VAL 3509
PHOD 3528 / PLOD 3488
Bullish = Open > 3528
Bearish = Open < 3488

The Euro traded in a very narrow trading-range on Wednesday with a big GAP-DOWN and closed the day near the highs of the range.  This type of price-action suggests that today will be a breakout day, and with the closing-print on Wednesday near the highs we have reason to suspect a bullish breakout is on the way at the opening-bell this morning.  We also must remember the Dollar-Index-correlation with Euro and the debt-deal we are hearing about may impact the Euro in ways we can’t predict, so we will be watching the opening-print today looking for confirmation of this projection.
Targets above:  3541, 3545, 3565, 3575, 3595, 3611, 3649
Targets below:  3486, 3480, 3460

Gold Futures:
VAH 1306.4 / VAL 1298.8
PHOD 1310.7 / PLOD 1294.6
Bullish = Open > 1310.7
Bearish = Open < 1294.6

Gold traded much lower on Wednesday with a GAP-DOWN in price, however the closing-print was up near the highs of the range which suggests that market sentiment had changed near the end of the session.  The trading-range from Wednesday was very wide, so today may be a range-bound market personality, but we will wait for the opening-print to confirm this suspicion.  With some added confidence from the rumored-debt-deal in the US, Gold would want to move lower this morning, so we will be watching the opening-bell closely for confirmation of this.
Targets above:  1322.0, 1323.0, 1328.5, 1333.5
Targets below: 1291.5, 1285.0

Crude Oil Futures:
VAH 102.17 / VAL 101.19
PHOD 103.29 / PLOD 101.18
Bullish = Open > 103.29
Bearish = Open < 101.18

Crude Oil trading much lower on Wednesday with a large GAP-DOWN that was never filled.  Wednesday was a very wide trading-range and the majority of the volume was traded near the lows around 101.50.  The wider-than-average trading-range tells us to expect a range-bound market personality this morning but we know the recent debt-deals may provide some addition firepower to the price-action this morning.  Look for a bullish move off these lows from yesterday if the buyers are confident this deal is going to get done.  If they don’t get this deal done, and prices move back below the 101.18 we are looking to sell short once again for the day.
Targets above:  104.08, 104.19, 104.38
Targets below:  101.15, 101.05

Mini-Russell Futures:
VAH 1044.9 / VAL 1038.5
PHOD 1048.2 / PLOD 1034.7
Bullish = Open > 1048.2
Bearish = Open < 1034.7

The Mini-Russell traded lower on Wednesday within a typical trading-range and a closing-print in the middle of that range.  This price-action suggests that anything can happen today because with the closing-print in the middle of the range and the slightly-bearish market sentiment we know that rumors of this debt-deal may give the buyers the confident to open above the 1048.2 and we’re buying today.  We will be watching the opening-print closely this morning looking for clues to where the first few minutes of the trading session take us.
Targets above:  1054.5, 1066.0, 1068.5, 1073.0
Targets below: NA

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