Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Morning Prep 10/09/13; SchoolOfTrade.com

7:30am EST
Focus-Points this morning:
·       US Govt Shutdown enters into its 9th day, causing nervousness across global markets.
·        US President Obama expected to nominate Janet Yellen as new Fed chair on Wednesday.
·       Concerns over shortages in USD cause the dollar to rise overnight
·       US Traders prepare for Wholesale Trade, Crude Oil Inventories, and FOMC Meeting Minutes news in today’s session.      

Economic News on the schedule today:

The White House emailed news Tuesday night (web site is shut down due to government shutdown) that President Obama will nominate Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen to be the next chair of the Fed when Chairman Ben Bernanke's term as chair expires January 31. Yellen would be the first woman to become Fed chair. She earlier served as president of the San Francisco Fed. Even if the Senate did not timely approve the nomination, Yellen would become acting chair of the Fed since she is Vice Chair. The White House email statement said that the official announcement would be Wednesday, October 9, at 3:00 p.m. ET. Equity futures in the U.S. rose on the news.

10:00am EST:           Wholesale Trade
10:30am EST:           Crude Oil Inventories
2:00pm EST:             FOMC Meeting Minutes

3:00pm EST:             President Obama to nominate new Fed Chairman, Janet Yellen

Levels this morning:

Euro Currency Futures:
VAH 3595 / VAL 3575
PHOD 3611 / PLOD 3567
Bullish = Open > 3611
Bearish = Open < 3575

The Euro closed Tuesday’s trading session at the lows of the day, suggesting a bearish market sentiment heading into this morning.  Trading-ranges have been relatively narrow over the last 2 sessions, which suggests a breakout day is on the horizon.  We will be watching closely to see where the opening-bell puts us this morning at 820am EST to confirm a bearish breakout scenario.
Targets above:  3625, 3635, 3649
Targets below: 3564, 3545, 3541, 3507

Gold Futures:
VAH 1328.5 / VAL 1322.3
PHOD 1330.8 / PLOD 1315.4
Bullish = Open > 1330.8
Bearish = Open < 1315.4

Gold had a very wide trading-range on Tuesday and closed the session in the middle of the range, suggesting that today will be a 2-sided market personality.  If we open the session inside the range from Tuesday we will know that traders are waiting on something this week before they commit to moving higher or lower, so we need to be ready to trade a sideways-trading-range.
Targets above:  1333.5, 1337.8
Targets below: 1310.0, 1306.0, 1305.1, 1302.0, 1297.3, 1296.5, 1291.5

Crude Oil Futures:
VAH 103.91 / VAL 103.59
PHOD 104.08 / PLOD 103.34
Bullish = Open > 104.08
Bearish = Open < 103.34

Crude Oil traded in a very narrow range on Tuesday and closed the day near the middle and on top of the prior day’s high.  This market personality on Tuesday suggests that we will see a possible breakout scenario in today’s session, but we need to first see where the opening-bell puts us this morning at 900am EST.  Look for an opening-print to be outside of yesterday’s trading-range for biggest clue for a breakout day ahead.
Targets above:  104.19, 104.38
Targets below: 103.26, 102.60, 102.55, 101.86, 101.51, 101.30, 101.06

Mini-Russell Futures:
VAH 1054.7 / VAL 1043.7
PHOD 1065.0 / PLOD 1043.5
Bullish = Open > 1065.0
Bearish = Open < 1043.5

The Mini-Russell had an extremely wide trading-range on Tuesday as sellers took charge and pushed prices lower.  We closed the session on Tuesday at the lows, which tells us the bears were in control the entire session.  This price-action from Tuesday tells us that Wednesday will likely be a relatively-quiet trading session and the opening-bell will tell us if the sellers are still in charge, or if the buyers have wrestled it away.  Look for price to open off the lows from Tuesday to suggest a change in market sentiment.
Targets above: 1035.5, 1060.5, 1068.5, 1071.3, 1073.5, 1078.6

Targets below: N/A

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