Friday, September 27, 2013

Crude Oil Day trading strategy; Morning Prep Screen to Floor 09/27/13

7:30am EST

Focus-Points this morning:
·       European markets slumping overnight after political concerns in Italy, lack-luster news
·       UN Security Council Votes on Syria likely on Friday
·       Crude Oil pushing lower overnight after signs of Middle East Resolution
·       Fed Speakers continue to voice their opinions on the topic of Fed Tapering; 3 speakers scheduled for Friday
·       US Budget Concerns showing on the tape this morning; Congress must reach an agreement on the budget debate before October 1, 2013
·       E-Mini’s moving lower at the open this morning
·       Traders watching the E-Mini Nasdaq ahead of the opening-bell after many tech companies are in the news this week
·       Traders watching for Red-Star news from Personal Income and Consumer Sentiment in Friday’s trading session

·       Traders will be watching closely for market personality going into the end of the month of September.

Economic News on the schedule today:
8:30am EST:             Personal Income and Outlays | Eric Rosengren Speaks
9:55am EST:             Consumer Sentiment

Crude Oil Analysis:
Crude Oil Anchor Chart 1
Crude Oil continues to move lower this morning, with more confidence that there will be a resolution in Syria along with some disappointing economic news released earlier this week.

Our 45Renko anchor charts shows a bearish long-term trend so we will be looking for selling-opportunities as they appear with entry patterns to get short this morning.

Crude Oil anchor Chart 2
Our 15Renko anchor chart shows a definite range-bound market in the shorter term, with trend-lines above and below creating a slightly-bearish price-wedge.  This is a very important clue, telling us the market personality this morning is likely to be range-bound so we will buy the lows and sell the highs of the trading-range rather than trying to force breakouts.

Crude Oil VIP Chart
The 30-minute VIP Chart shows us a very important set of clues this morning, with a very narrow trading-range that is inside the last three (3) days of trading ranges.  This narrow inside-day tells us that today is indeed going to be a range-bound market until we can manage to get outside of the previous day’s trading-ranges.  Furthermore, the narrow range coming out of the London trading Session tells us that a breakout of the range is likely at some point this morning.

Crude Oil PIT Levels
Look for a breakout above the PHOD at 102.87 and a buying opportunity with a profit-target up at the PHOD at 103.96, with a runner target up at 105.12.  The same is true for the short-side this morning.  If we can get below the 102.20 we will then look for selling-opportunities down to the big-round-number of 102.00 and then 100.00 for the runner.

The most important thing we need to remember for today is that this is the end of the week and the end of the month.  We have some important news this morning to get us started, but this range-bound market personality may continue this morning so we need to be aware of it.  We will wait patiently for the breakout of the trading-range for the Wave patterns and inside the range we will use our reversal-bar entries to buy-the-lows at support and sell-the-high at resistance.

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