Thursday, September 26, 2013

Crude Oil Day trading strategy; Morning Prep Screen to Floor 09/26/13

7:30am EST

Focus-Points this morning:
·       Traders looking forward to better market personality this morning after a low-volume first-half of the week.
·       Markets in Europe moving lower this morning after disappointing news from Italy and the UK
·       Oil pushes higher this morning, up $.36 trading around the 103.00 big-round-number.
·       E-Mini S&P trading higher this morning ahead of the opening-bell in the US
·       Traders in the US prepare for Red-Star news events at 8:30am EST this morning from GDP and Jobless Claims.            

Economic News on the schedule today:
8:30am EST:             GDP | Jobless Claims
10:00am EST:           Pending Home Sales | Fed Speaker Jeremy Stein
10:30am EST:           Natural-Gas Inventories
12:15pm EST:          Fed speaker Narayana Kocherlakota                 

Crude Oil Analysis: 

Crude Oil Daily 
Daily Chart:  Prices are coming off the recent highs of 111.48 and headed towards the support level at 101.27 today.  We can see today’s daily candlestick is inside yesterday’s bearish candle, suggesting that buyers are trying to prevent this collapse from happening today.

Crude Oil 4-Hour
240-Minute Chart:  prices are moving lower this morning on the way to the support level at 101.48 and 99.12.  We can see trend-lines above and below us as support and resistance.  We will look to buy the lows and sell the highs of this price-wedge using the support levels below us as our guide.

Crude Oil 1-Hour
60-Minute Chart:  We can see a bearish price-channel and price-action is trading higher coming off the lows and bouncing off the 102.00 big-round-number.  We can see resistance levels overhead at 105.8 and 105.88, which we will use for a long term profit-target for buying these lows.  Look for immediate resistance at 103.96.

Crude Oil Half-Hour
30-Minute Chart:  We can see the multi-day bearish trend is coming to an end, and there is evidence that today will likely be a range-bound trading session because yesterday gave us higher-highs and lower-lows and then closed near the session lows before opening this morning back in the middle.  This price-action tells us the buyers and the sellers BOTH tried to get this to breakout of this trading-range and was unsuccessful.  We can assume now that the buyers are going to try and re-test the PHOD at 103.96 and possibly higher later in the session.

Crude Oil 15-Minute
15-Minute Chart: We can see the buyers aren’t wasting any time this morning pushing this price-action higher.  We can see the buyers forcing the market up through the resistance zone at 103.08 on its way higher to the next zone at 103.58.  If this buying pressure continues we should see a close above the 103.29 and then look for more buying opportunities with a profit-target at 103.58.

Overall, we can see that today is likely to be a range-bound market personality, with a clear bullish tone in the short term this morning.  When trading Crude Oil we will stay with the short-term trend and always be on the lookout for a price-reversal.

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