Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Crude Oil Day trading strategy; Morning Prep Screen to Floor 09/25/13

7:30am EST
Focus-Points this morning:
·       Trading remains cautious this morning, markets still looking for clues from the Fed
·       Gold rises overnight
·       Emerging market equities continue to struggle         
·       German Consumer Confidence comes in at 6-year highs
·       Traders focus on Red-Star news this morning from Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, and Crude Oil Inventories
·       Last night (Tuesday @ 430pm EST) API Inventories for Crude Oil came in at a draw of -50k.
·       Traders continue to look for signs the Fed will begin its ‘QE Tapering’

Economic News on the schedule today:
8:30am EST:             Durable Goods Orders
10:00am EST:           New Home Sales
10:30am EST:           Crude Oil Inventories

Crude Oil Analysis:
Crude Oil 5400-tick
We begin this morning with our anchor chart analysis of Crude Oil Futures and we can see from the 5400tick chart that we have a long-term trend that is bearish, with a bear price-channel and a red ‘cloud’.  Furthermore, we can see that the lows of this price-channel have held as support and price-action has managed to break above the ‘cloud’ resistance and now appears to be ready to make a price-reversal to move back higher.  This is a very big clue this morning because when the anchor chart changes its trend direction we have a new trading opportunity in front of us this morning.

Crude Oil 1800-tick
We move to a faster anchor-chart timeframe and the 1800tick chart shows us a recent change in the trend from bearish to bullish.  This is a very important clue for us because when the long-term trend changes we need to be ready for a buying opportunity this morning.  We are above the cloud on the 5400tick chart, and with the 1800tick chart turned GREEN we are going to be looking for buying opportunities this morning.

IMPORTANT:  If we are going to buy this morning, we will use the resistance levels from the 1800-tick chart as our guide.  We will take profit-targets at 104.53, 105.23, 105.92 and 106.90 as we enter into long positions this morning with the new long-term trend.

Crude Oil 600-tick
Our 600-tick entry/anchor chart shows us more important confirmation of a bullish trend this morning, so we are now going to be looking to buy the pullbacks on the way higher this morning.  All we have to do is look for the proper entry pattern to get long, which is currently at the 103.49 area at the lows of the bull price-channel.

Crude Oil 30-Minute
The 30-minute VIP Chart is very important confirmation of this bullish market personality this morning.  First we can see the last 3 sessions have been lower (colored red) and this morning we can see the break back above the PHOD, which suggests to us that something has fundamentally changed with the value of Crude Oil Futures.  We close on Tuesday up near the HOD which tells us the strength to move higher is already there.  All we need now is to see the opening-bell at 9:00am EST with a print above the 103.64 and we are off to the races buying as we move higher.


Small draw overnight...which is a bullish clue.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Thank you for your comment! Your comment will be reviewed and posted asap, thank you for your patience.