Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Crude Oil Day trading strategy; Morning Prep Screen to Floor 09/24/13

7:30am EST

Focus-Points this morning:
·       Economic News was mixed coming out of Europe
·       The uncertainty at the Fed is causing weakness in the emerging markets
·       Overall, markets trade cautiously waiting for more information from the Fed
·       Traders prepare for news from Home Prices and Consumer Confidence today                           

News Today
Economic News on the schedule today:
This morning we have two major news events on the schedule, with 2 additional times for Fed Speakers.  We had a very active session on Monday with 3 Fed Speakers, and today is likely to be very similar market personality.  Our news is at 9:00am and 10:00am EST so we will wait patiently today for the best price-action around these news events.

9:00am EST              S&P Case Schiller Home Price Index
10:00am EST            Consumer Confidence
4:30pm EST              API Crude Oil Inventories News

Crude Oil Analysis:
Crude Oil 5400t
We begin each session with a review of our anchor charts first, and this morning we can see everything points to lower prices with a very easy-to-find downward trend. 
The 5400-tick chart shows us trading at the lows of the bear price-channel, with symmetry support at 102.30 which is about $1.00 below us at this time, which can easily be tested today and will be used for our first profit-target if we can get into a short position early in the session.

Crude Oil 1800t
The 1800-tick chart shows us a similar long-term trend that is bearish, which confirms we are indeed looking for selling-opportunities as the high-percentage-trades this morning.  We notice the low wave-count on this chart, so we are looking for new lower-lows from initiating sellers below 103.00 or a test of the sell-zone at 104.06 for easy selling-opportunities this morning.

Crude Oil 600t
The 600-tick chart shows us much of the same information; a bearish trend, a very low wave-count and three (3) sell-zones overhead that we will use for selling-opportunities this morning.  First, if we get new lower-lows we will then be looking for our entry patterns to get short down to that symmetry support we found on the anchor chart above.  Second, we will sell short with a test of any of the three sell-zones overhead at 103.32, 103.48, and 103.75.

Crude Oil 30M
Our 30-minute VIP Chart shows us many clues this morning, with price-action trading on top of the PLOD at 103.12, the prior week’s lows above us at 104.18, and a very narrow trading-range coming out of London.  The most important thing we get from this chart is the PLOD.  If we see sellers ‘initiating’ activity below the PLOD we will assume these sellers see value with lower prices, so we will be looking for selling-opportunities below the 103.12 this morning.  If those sellers cannot keep prices below the PLOD we will see a test of the 104.18 and possibly the 105.12 PHOD later in the session.  We will be keeping a close eye on the sellers, because if they fail this morning we know where the buyers are going to take this price-action shortly afterwards and we want to be ready. 


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