Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Crude Oil Day trading strategy; Morning Prep



7:00am EST  News coming out of London Overnight:

(US) Overnight we heard from the US Foreign Relations committee, announcing a resolution draft on Syria;  This will allow President Obama 90 days for military action with a possible 30-day extension, and does NOT include any US forces on the ground in Syria.
(EUR) PMI News overnight comes out higher-than-expected, prompting speculation in Europe that the worst may be behind the EU.

Focal Points this morning:
·      - Spain sees first expansion in manufacturing in 2 years
·       -UK Manufacturing highest it’s been since 2006
·       -US prepares for Fed’s Beige Book Report later in the session today

Today's Economic News
Economic News on the schedule today:
This morning at 8:30am EST traders in the US will be watching today’s Red-Star news from International Trade report because the strength of imports will reflect on the domestic demand ahead of Holiday Retail Sales.  Furthermore, an improvement in exports would point to improvements in foreign economies.

This afternoon we will hear from the Fed’s Beige Book report, which is produced two weeks before the next FOMC Meeting, and reports the economic conditions in the 12 different Federal Reserve Districts.  We know for certain that traders will be reading this report, looking for clues from the Fed, and making assumptions on possible ‘fed tapering’ in the future.

Crude Oil Analysis:

Crude Oil 30-Minute
Crude Oil is trading in the middle of Tuesday’s trading-range this morning ahead of the opening-bell in the US.  We can see from the 30-minute VIP chart that there was a very narrow trading-range coming out of London, and with new developments in Syria overnight we can assume the market personality is simply waiting for the US traders to react to this today.  No matter what happens in Syria, we have the last 2 days of highs overhead as resistance at 110.07 and 108.83.  Furthermore, we have the last 2 days of lows below us as support at 106.50 and 105.92.


Crude Oil Anchor 1
We open our 5400-tick chart to see major resistance zones overhead at 108.23 and 110.52.  We can also see a trend-line acting as resistance overhead as well.  Both of these clues tell us the resistance has held, and we will look for lower price-action this morning.  We can see price-action has moved below the ‘cloud’ just moments after the trend changed to bullish.  This 5400-tick chart shows us a possible change in direction to the DOWNSIDE this morning.

Crude Oil Anchor 2
The 1800-tick chart gives us a big clue for a price-reversal early in the session.  With a bullish ‘cloud’ on the 1800-tick chart we have recently seen price-action move back below the ‘cloud’ support and now headed towards the 107.53 swing-low.  If we get a new lower-low on this 1800-tick chart we will begin looking for selling-opportunities this morning.

Crude Oil Entry Chart
Our 600-tick chart shows us that the short-term trend has already changed to bearish ahead of 8:00am EST, which means we are just waiting on the anchor charts to confirm the same direction and we can take our first wave-pattern-short we see this morning.

Crude Oil PIT Session Price Levels for today:

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