Today is expected to be slow, sluggish, and sloppy at certain of the morning. There will be times of great opportunity and we will need to be patient to wait for them.
Today is the last day of the month, the quarter, and the fiscal half-year. So major fund managers, major institutional traders will be sitting on hands this morning as they wrap up their month/quarter.
Our first clue today is from the dollar index (DX 12-11) and we see a strong bullish trend on the short term of the dollar, and this tells us day traders that the short side of the trades will likely be higher percentage this morning.
Crude Oil futures are giving us some easy clues this morning:
- Inside Day Transition
The inside day, sideways range and the price wedge both tell me to buy the lows, sell the highs, and avoid the middles.
So all three clues tell me to expect the fake-out breakouts. As price falls I'm looking to buy first, then sell new lower lows with retracements. As price rises I'm selling at resistance and then buying pullbacks with new higher highs.
If price falls I'm I'm going to buy the wedge lows and the PLOD as support. If price breaks through that support we turn into an OUTSIDE DAY, which means we start selling retracements with new lower lows.
The price wedge reminds me to expect the fake-out break with lows below the PLOD, so that will be on my mind when we push below the PLOD. If sellers are too strong we then will sell retracements, but we know what to be looking for.
I will then sell retracements down to the next major support levels at 80.50, 80.00 and 79.64.
If price rises I'm then moving towards the middle of the range, so don’t trade the middle, trade the highs or the lows of the wedge and the range.
I will sell the wedge highs, sell the resistance above the wedge highs at 83.00, 83.25, 83.30, 83.75, 84.00 and 84.50 above it.
Again, the price wedge reminds me to sell as price rises above the wedge, expecting to see the fake-out breakout.
We’ve had a profitable morning so far. We are aware of the situation (end of month and quarter) so we are staying patient for the best trading opportunities today.
Gold Futures gives us three clues this morning:
- Price Wedge
- Inside Day
- Bear Channel (short term)
This is the same personality traits we saw on crude oil, except for the channel.
As price falls I'm buying the wedge lows and the support below the wedge lows first, and then with this bear channel I will sell with new lower lows using a retracement.
We can assume the sellers will be in full control below 1611.3 so we’re looking to buy as price falls down to this level of support.
If price goes even lower, we then sell retracements, taking profit at the next major levels of support below, including the PLOD 16.02.2 and channel lows.
If price rises I'm buying the lows of the wedge, taking profit at the bear channel highs, and then selling the highs of the bear channel.
If price breaks through the bear it will go to the BMT so beware a sloppy market around the BMT.
I will sell resistance at 25.1, 26.6 and 29.2 and will avoid trading around the OPEN at 27.4
We’re having a GREAT Friday at this point, sold the bear channel highs on gold, traded the lows buying the wedge lows on the crude oil, and now we’re trying to stay patient and wait through this 945am and 955am news.
Remember to keep an eye on the clock after 1030am today looking for the volume to slow down ahead of the 11am hour.
Euro Futures gives us a very different look than the crude and gold:
- Outside Day
- Bear Price Channel
- Bear Price Wedge
- US Dollar Index is rising (bullish)
The rising dollar tells me that selling the euro will be the higher percentage trades.
Outside day and the bear price channel tell me to sell new lower lows with retracements, and to expect the sellers to be in control.
Price Wedge tells me to buy the lows of the wedge, sell the highs, and avoid the middle.
We are currently (955) at the middle of the wedge, so be careful.
Market personality is getting very slow and sloppy, just as we expected.
We need to pick our spots wisely b/c time is not on our side. Later we go, sloppier it will be.
Crude Oil failed to break new highs above the PLOD, and tumbled back down to an outside day again < PLOD.
This is a very bearish sign on crude oil, and then we have the dollar rising in its bull channel so the negative correlation also makes sense for price to be bearish.