Price Reversal on Crude Oil made my day today!

The dollar has dropped from the sideways range on Wednesday

-          We now see the dollar is oversold on the 34range chart, with momentum curling up

-          We expect the dollar index to now rise, giving us selling opportunities on the market we trade most.

-          We see the dollar at the lows of the price channel in pink trend lines and with the big drop, we expect a decent pop back up.

-          Dollar rises = selling opportunities at resistance

830am est

-          Jobless claims come out slightly higher than expected

-          Lets wait and see what the market’s reaction is

-          Don’t forget that ALL the opinions on this news release are expressed in the DOLLAR

840am est

-          We see the gold futures are testing the PHOD

-          The PHOD is a major transitional area

-          Above the PHOD we should see the HOD tested again, buyers are in control

-          Below the PHOD was have to assume the market participants see NO VALUE in higher prices, so the sellers are in control.

-          We looked for a 21r wave long on gold, but the news at 830am and the slow speed made us wait

-          Now 10 mins later the faster timeframes on gold (13r and 4r) and showing flat trigger line, slow speed, and overbought momentum.

-          This tells us that this PHOD is the transition area.

-          Where are we going to go?  Nobody knows!!

920am est

-          Where are we right now?

-          We just finished selling the highs on crude oil for a fast track win and advanced win

-          Now we see the US market open coming around the corner and we wait for the 930am open

-          We’re at the highs of the wedge on crude, look to sell the highs

-          Sell new lows buy shorting retracements, do NOT sell the lows, or sell with oversold momentum

-          Below 106.00 we enter back into the bullish channel.

-          I want to sell the highs of the channel, selling < 106.00

-          106 is a big round number, so this area will be expected to be sloppy

-          I will buy 106.00 first as support, and then sell < 106.00 when it breaks.

-          Look for the lows of the price channel to be the final target.

-          If we get below 105.80, we are now headed down to 104.57 the BMT>

-          Getting in short below 106 may be a challenge with the 34range trigger line at 105.81

-          Patience is key, wait for the 34r trigger line to REALLY break and then take it down to the lows.

950am est

-          We’ve just finished with a wave long on the 21r on crude oil

-          We couldn’t quite get up to the HOD on the wave, the market had a challenge breaking that top of the wedge for a 2^nd time.

-          Now we think the crude oil is transitioning into the sell side.

-          We are at the highs of the wedge, so we want to sell on crude oil

Lets plan our attack on crude oil…

-          As we drop off the highs, im buying 106.00 as support first, this is also the top of the channel, which will support

-          We have the highs of the channel @ 106.00 and we see major trigger line support at 105.93

-          Wait to sell below .93 so we can sell the highs of the channel (50 tick winner!!!!!!)

-          105.50 looks to be the swing highs from earlier this AM, so that will be a great target for this short.

-          The PHOD is another great target for the short sellers. This will act like a price magnet.

-          Swing trade method also signals short when we tested the highs earlier this morning.

-          The key to this swing trade short will be getting in below the major support.

-          34range trigger line is the MOST IMPORTANT issue to watch for this short.

FAQ Automated Trading Software, Auto Trader, Automated Trading System Review

How Do I use the Auto Trader?

• The 'Quick Start' is a pre-requisite for using the auto trader.
• It is HIGHLY encouraged you familiarize yourself with the Quick Start Guide first, this way you know what everything does.
• It is also encouraged for you to attend the many free webinars offered by Ninja Trader Support so you can learn how to use charts. 
• If you have NEVER used NT charts these free webinars will be a great way to start learning on a solid foundation of knowledge.
• We provide Live training on the auto trader every Wednesday @ 12pm EST for our members only

 The word 'strategy' is not available on my NT7 Software...why can’t I add the strategy?

·        You need a different license key to use the auto trader on the DEMO version of NT7

·         Please get the NinjaTrader 7 license key for this here

I load the strategy correctly, but no trades are taken...

• Have you downloaded the Auto Trader Strategy? If you cannot find the JJStrategy in your list of strategy options you have NOT downloaded it completely.  Remember to follow the instructions carefully, you must open the download and then CLICK ON the download link.
• Some web browsers are different, so make sure you 100% download the strategy itself, this is a common issue with traders using different web browsers.
• check to make sure you have the most recent version of NT7 7.0.1000.4
• make sure you are connected to the live market
• Make sure you have the strategy 'enabled' inside the control center / strategies
• Make sure you have enough days of data on your chart
• Make sure you are showing the executed  trades on your chart.  Open the chart data series and make sure 'plot executions' is set for TRUE/Text & Marker
• Be sure to use the correct Session Template so your auto trader is only taking trades at the correct times.

  

I load the strategy correctly, but I have different results as you

·        check your 'session template' and make sure the times you are using are correct

·        open your chart 'data series' and confirm your 'session template' is correct.

·        Remember, session templates must be created from scratch on your computer, you cannot use a template

·        Also remember that your chart templates we provide you have the correct session template selected, but you must create the session template on your computer first

·       NT7 Control Center / Tools / Session Manager / New / Add / Save (then add to your chart inside the ‘data series’…session template.

·        session template info can be found here on NinjaTrader.com Website

How do I tell what this 'drawdown' number means?

• The % of drawdown is based on the size of the account you have specific in the 'accounts' tab inside your NT7 control center.
• Example:  If you see 1% drawdown on Gold Futures, and you used a $100,000usd account to test the results, this would give you $1,000 drawdown.
• This tells you that if you have $1500 in your account you will be ok, you should not have any issues with too much drawdown on the account.

How do I “backtest”  this strategy for 60days....90days...12months?

• If you load the strategy to a chart, you can simply add the amount of DAYS OF DATA to the chart, and then check your performance report.
• If you load the chart within the control center (no chart needed) you can specify the number of days of data that you wish to backtest. 
• Just remember that when you backtest you may have to use a continuous contract for more than the current from month, or go back to the previous front month.
• Example:  Crude rolls forward monthly, so to backtest 90 days on CL you need the previous 3 contract months OR backtest a continuous contract CL ##-##
• Video Tutorial on Back testing:  http://www.ninjatrader.com/support/helpGuides/nt7/index.html?backtest_a_strategy.htm

How should I set up my control center if I want to trade this 24 hours a day?

Where do I save the Strategy Template on MY computer?

·        My documents / NT7 / Templates (the same location as your Auto Levels template files)

·        Remember…you need to create Session Templates from scratch, there is no ‘template’ for these.

What does 'overnight' margin really mean?

·        Our auto trader can be set to never hold trades overnight. 

·        Please remember, this is NOT when you are asleep, this is when the electronic session is closed for the market you trade.  Each market will be different, depending on the exchange it trades on.

·        For more info on when the markets are 'closed' for overnight, please visit the specific page on the exchange

·       Crude Oil Futures Contract Specifications

·       Gold Futures Contract Specifications

·       Euro Futures Contract Specifications

·       Russell Futures Contract Specifications

The auto trader takes both long and short positions, do I need to have two (2) trade accounts for this?

·        No, you only need 1 account.

·        All futures accounts will allow long and short positions.

·        If you intend to trade the auto AND trade discretionary you will need 2 accounts b/c there is possibility of trading long on the auto and then short in your discretionary, which will offset and flatten.

Error Messages you may encounter:

·        "Unable to restore strategy 'NinjaTrader.Strategy.JJStrategy’. Most likely this strategy no longer is supported by the custom assemblies."

o   This may happen, close the workspace and create a new one, no need to uninstall anything

Do I need to ‘enable’ the auto trader every day?

·        No, start your AT on Sunday night after 6pm EST

·        Leave it running all week

·        Shut it all down end of day on Friday

·        You will NOT need to touch ANYTHING all week, just let it run

·        As long as the strategy is ‘enabled’ in your control center you can let it run

·        Remember, your session templates will turn it on/off at the beginning/end of the day on auto-pilot

Can I work with any broker?:

·        Yes, you can work with any broker as long as they provide REAL TIME DATA

·        Do not use brokers (Interactive Brokers for example) that use FILTERED tick data

·        You need REAL time data, and we have a list of brokers that we prefer to use

·        Support@SchoolOfTrade.com and ask them for ‘broker references’

Custom NinjaScript Files on your PC have programming errors

Custom NinjaScript Files on your PC have programming errors

Here is the response we received directly from the wonderful folks at NT Support.

Please follow the instructions below to see where the errors are coming from after compiling the indicator. This will allow you to debug the indicator/strategy or remove it from your PC. If you are wondering why you receive an error when compiling only one indicator, it is because NinjaTrader compiles all indicators and strategies- not just one.

• Open NinjaTrader
• From the Control Center select the Tools menu--> select the Edit NinjaScript menu item--> select Indicator
• Select an indicator and double click on it.
• A new window will appear and you will need to right click in the window and select Compile to compile the indicators.
• At the bottom of the window a new section will appear were you can find the error locations.

Please let me know the file and location of the file that is the source of the issue and then I can follow-up based on the precise steps to resolve this issue without a full uninstall.

Sincerely,
Ryan Olson
NinjaTrader Customer Service

Support@NinjaTrader.com

Market Internals update Day Trade The News

***Looking Ahead***

- (RU) Russia Q4 Current Account: $ v $1.5Be v 6.0B prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.5-2.5B in Notes/Bonds
- 11:30 (IR) Irish Bank stress tests results
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Feb Urban Unemployment Rate: 13.1%e v 14.7% prior
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Tarullo to speak at 2011 Credit Symposium in Charlotte
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Feb Construction Activity M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 11.6% prior
- 19:50 (JP) Q1 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index: 6e v 5 prior
- 21:00 (CH) China Mar PMI Manufacturing: 54.5e v 52.2 prior-
- 22:30 (CH) China Mar HSBC Manufacturing PMI: No est v 51.7 prior

10:31 AM Market Internals update at 10:30ET

- NYSE volume 175M shares, about 18% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 1.3:1.
- NASDAQ volume 415M shares, about 8% below its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 1.1:1.
- VIX index +1% at just over 17.00

5:52 AM TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Euro Zone Flash CPI reading all but cements an April ECB rate hike

***Economic Data***

- (GE) Germany Feb Retail Sales M/M: -0.3% v +0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.5%e
- (FI) Finland Jan Final Trade Balance: -€95.0M v -€75.0M prior
- (UK) Mar Nationwide House prices M/M: 0.5% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: +0.1% v -0.6%e
- (GE) Germany Feb ILO Employment: 40.641M v 40.6M prior; +43K v +41K m/m
- (GE) Germany Feb ILO Unemployment Rate: 6.3% v 6.5% prior; M/M: -50K
- (HU) Hungary Q4 Current Account: €366M v €124Me
- (IN) India Primary Articles WPI w/e Mar 19th Y/Y: 13.0% v 13.5% prior; Food Articles WPI Y/Y: 9.5% v 10.1% prior
- (FR) France Feb Producer Prices M/M: 0.8% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 6.3% v 6.2%e
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Mar 25th: $504.0B v $500.0B prior
- (TU) Turkey Q4 GDP Q/Q: 3.6% v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: 9.2% v 7.4%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: 9.6% v 6.4% prior
- (TU) Turkey Feb Trade Balance: -$7.4B -$6.8B
- (TH) Thailand Feb Business Sentiment: 52.3v 52.8 prior
- (TH) Thailand Feb Current Account: $3.8B v $2.9Be; Total Trade Balance: $2.0B v -$588M prior; Overall Trade Balance: $4.3B v $1.7B prior
- (DE) Denmark Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.4% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.7%e
- (DE) Denmark Feb Unemployment Rate: 4.0% v 4.2%e Unemployment Rate Gross Rate: 6.0% v 6.1% prior
- (GE) Germany Mar Unemployment Change:-55 K v -25Ke; Unemployment Rate: 7.1% v 7.2%e
- (CZ) Czech Feb Money Supply Y/Y: 2.8% v 3.7% prior
- (IT) Italy Feb PPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 5.7% v 5.2% prior
- (NO) Norway Feb Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 5.9% v 6.2%e
- (NO) Norway Feb Retail sales Volume M/M: 0.7% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 1.3%e
- (SP) Spain Jan Current Account-€6.6 v -€3.1B prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Feb M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.7 v 9.5% prior; M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.0 v 9.8% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Feb Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 8.6% v 18.5%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 5.1% v 13.8%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Feb Gov't Monthly Budget Balance (HKD): -9.5B v 34.8B prior
- (TT) Taiwan Central Bank raises the Benchmark Interest Rate by 12.5bps to 1.75%; As Expected
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar CPI Estimate Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.4%e
- (IT) Italy Mar Preliminary CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.4%e
- (IT) Italy Mar Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 2.0 % v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.1% prior
- (GR) Greece Jan Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -10.5% v -13.2% prior; Volume Y/Y: -16.0% v -19.2%
- (SA) South Africa Feb PPI M/M: 1.5% v 0.6%e v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: 6.7 v 6.0%e
- (IR) Ireland Jan Trade Balance: First Estimate: €2.9B v €3.6B prior
- (MA) Malaysia Feb M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.9 v 8.8% prior

This information was brought to you courtesy of TradetheNews.com, for your free trial Click Here

Day Trading Morning Prep Gold, Crude Oil, Dollar Index, Euro, E-mini Russell Futures

‘We are what we repeatedly do.  Excellence, therefore, is not an act, but a habit’ - Aristotle

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Let’s begin our morning routine with the economic news for today’s trading session.

8:20 Gold & Currencies OPEN

8:30 Jobless Claims

9:00 Crude Oil OPEN

9:30 US Market OPEN

9:45 Chicago PMI

10:00 Factory Orders

10:30 EIA Natural Gas Report

10:30 E-mini Reversal

11:00 Transition into Lunch

11:30 European Close / Live Webinar in our Trade Room

Looking at the news this morning...We will hopefully get some volume from the jobs report at 830am, so be on the look out for that.  Later in the session we have to be careful trading around the 10am timeframe.  Make sure we avoid the news 5 mins before and then wait 5 mins afterwards.

We've seen a very significant slowdown AFTER the last news of the morning in the month of March, so be careful in the 'dead zone' from 1045 to 1130am est today.

And of course I cant forget today is the last day of the month, and the last day of first quarter.  Its tough to tell what the personality will be this morning until we get started...we may see slow and sloppy or this morning may be filled with action...we will see very soon!

Lets look at the charts we're watching today...

Gold Futures

Im looking at the gold futures still trading in the middle of the massive sideways range referrenced on this 89range chart.

We're in the middle of this sideways market which means we will see more challenging price action.  We want to trade around the highs and the lows of this range, I would rather stay away from the middle.

Lets take a look at the 34-range chart and see where our day trading opportunities will be today.

I can see many important aspects to focus on this morning with gold:

• Sideways Market
• PHOD and PLOD
• Dollar Correlation

The first thing I see is this sideways market we're been trading in with gold.  my goal is to Buy the lows, sell the highs, and avoid the middle of this sideways range.

As price rises im looking to sell at resistance, If price breaks new highs I will  Buy a Pullback at support.

On the flip side, with a sideways market Im looking to buy at support as price falls, If price breaks new highs I will  Buy a Pullback at support.

The next thing I see is the PHOD and PLOD are below us.  This makes this an Outside Trading Day which has more profit potential.

Im always watching the PHOD and PLOD and you can see this range from 1431.8 down to 1413.5 will be trying to attract price back DOWN into this area.

I will buy the PHOD first as we drop, then sell a retracement below the PHOD if we break new lows.  I will then look to BUY the PLOD as support, and sell a retracement if we break below that as well.

The range below us will be calling the name of the gold all morning today, so be on the look out for the Price reversal pattern and head back down.

Crude Oil Futures 

Im looking at the 89range chart on the crude oil futures and we see the following:

• Price Wedge
• Bearish Price Channel
• Bullish Price CHannel
• Sideways Range

We can see crude oil has broken the bearish price channel in green trend lines, and now has developed into a bullish price channel in orange trend lines, and we also have a sideways market today.

The most important will be to watch the sideways range, and since we have a bullish price channel, we can think of the buy side as the higher percentage side.

Buying the lows, or buying at support will be the high % trade this morning.

With that bullish sentiment in the market, we then look at the price wedge in pink trend lines, and we see the overhead resistance is the top of this wedge.

Im always looking to sell the highs of the price wedge, this will be around 106.50.

Im always selling the highs of the sideways range around 106.00, 105.75.

Lets look at the 34range chart

I can see the following on this much faster timeframe:

• New bullish price channel
• Sideways Range
• Wedge Highs above us
• PHOD and PLOD

The first thing i see is this new bullish price channel in blue trend lines.  this means we will be looking to buy at support on the way up, and buy pullbacks when we get new higher highs.

We also see the sideways range that was defined from our 89range chart, so we want to sell the highs and buy the lows of this range.

We know the highs of the price wedge are above us at 106.50, so that will be a MAJOR level of resistance I will be looking to sell if price gets up that high.

PHOD and PLOD are below us, making this an outside trading day.  Outside days mean something has changed the opinion of VALUE in the market, which should result in moving markets.

Im going to see the PHOD as support first as we drop, so ill look to buy that support at 105.14, but in all reality im looking for the SHORT when we break below the PHOD.

If prices drop to the PLOD im buying the PLOD, and If price breaks new lows I will  Sell a Retracement at resistance.

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