Thursday, September 30, 2010

Day Trading Gold Crude Oil and Russell on Jobless Claims and GDP News




- Dollar index futures are showing a lot of movement this morning ahead of the 830am news

- The dollar broke the highs and the lows from the trading range yesterday, making this an ‘outside trading day’

- This type of price action on the dollar is usually going to mean decent trading ranges and plenty of opportunity on the markets we trade.

- Keep an eye on the market returning to a flat sideways range to avoid the market, and keep looking for opportunities while the dollar is moving.

- Crude oil futures are trading exactly where we called them last night on the blog, trading at the highs of the channel and the highs of the sideways range above us from yesterday,.

- At the highs im looking to sell these highs, and I will buy the breakout above us if the market continues to rise.

- If we continue to see the crude oil buyers in control, look to buy above 78.86 and then take profit at the new highs of 79.60

- We have a 2-step reversal pattern on the crude oil 13-range chart which was also called on the blog last night

830am EST

- Gold futures trading sideways at the highs of the day and the highs of the channel so we’re looking for the short side as the higher percentage side.

- The best option will be to sell the highs below 12.2 going back down into the sideways range

- Take profit and buy the lows of 1307.6 to stay trading inside this range.

- The 13.6 area on the 21-range chart for gold futures looks to be a choppy area that we will want to avoid or take extra caution when scalping or day trading around this area.

930am EST

- The euro is testing new highs but not making any progress which is concerning for day traders because we cant buy the breakouts until this market personality changes to a breakout market

- So the best option is to sell the highs at 77 trend line and then wait for the test of the lows to buy the lows at 32’s

950am EST

- The Russell has been making new highs for us today so we have two options

o We can buy the breakout when we see good speed and big buyers at the highs

o Or we can wait to buy the pullback at the lows 682.4 or even lower we can buy the previous lows of 678.3

o If we break the lows we need to be careful with the trend line as support, so look for a quick scalp short below 78.3 with a target of the trend line, or simply wait to break the trend line on the way down for your entry.

1015am EST

- Crude oil futures are falling asleep on us right now trading sideways after the big jump up to 79.50

- The best options on crude oil are to wait to buy the lows and sell the highs.

- Buy the trend line as support around 79.00 and I will buy the 92 if we break to the downside

- If we rise to the highs im going to sell the 40 and sell the 47 looking to take the price back down into the sideways trading range.

- We open the 13-range chart on crude oil and we can see a much bigger picture and the larger move setting up below us.

- Entry short below 92 will be a 2-step reversal price pattern off these highs, and looking to cover this short position ½ at 75, ¼ off 55, and soft target of 18 and a hard target of 60 all the way to the lows of the previous trading range.

1035AM EST

- We see a inverted head and shoulders pattern on the 13range chart, which shows signs of a price reversal

- I don’t have the pattern on my 13range, so I look for the pattern on the faster 4range chart for my entry above 680.8

- This will be a scalper entry so use the standard scalping trade management strategies.

- We also see a potential short trade below 679.7 level bouncing off the highs, but we see nothing but large BUYERS on the tape, which tells us this short move is likely only temporary and will go back to the highs.

- We have the dollar index futures now trading up back into the range from yesterday (inside day)

- Support on the dollar means resistance on everything else, so I’m concerned with the long side until this dollar moves down again below support.

- Back inside this sideways trading range means everything will likely be moving sideways for a while

- We will wait for the dollar to make new highs/lows for some more confident moves in the markets we trade.

1130am EST

- The markets are very sloppy for the past 35 minutes mostly due to the dollar going back into its sideways trading range from the day previously.

- Then the dollar tested the highs of the range, which sent all the market moving, but inside the range above kept everything very choppy.

Day Trading 1 Contract Strategy




1-contract day trading strategy

Let’s begin by comparing two types of day trading strategies:

1 contract trading:
       All Set-Ups OK
       All Markets OK
       Risk/Reward = 1:1
       Initial Stop:  Tighter
       Targets:  Only 1
       Trade Management:  None.
       Objective:  2 Contracts 

3 Contacts traded:
       All Set-Ups OK
       All Markets OK
       Risk/Reward = 1.5:1
       Initial Stop:  Wider
       Targets:  3
       Trade Management:
      Quick profit, trail stop
       Objective:  4…5…6 Contracts! 

Here’s how to get started…
       1 market, 1 timeframe, 1 set-up
       Patience & Discipline to wait
       1:1 risk/reward ratio
       1 profit target
       Daily Goal:  Small, Consistent Profit
       Overall Goal:  2…3 contracts

Here’s what to expect…
       Week 1 & 2:  Practice on SIM Account
       Week 3:  LIVE TRADING
      EXAMPLE:  EURO:  6 tick target, 6 tick stop (1:1)
       Winner = +$75.00usd, Loser = -$75.00usd
       (assume 3 trades per day, 2 wins, 1 loss)
      Day 1:    +75, +75, -75 = +75.00usd
      Day 2:    +75, +75, -75 = +75.00usd…..
      ….Day 5:  +75, +75, -75 = +75.00usd
       5 days x $75/day = $375.00 / week
Add it up…
       $375.00 per week
       1 contract costs us $750.00…..2 weeks!
       End of week #3…. +375.00
       End of week #4…. +750.00…
      Now we trade with 2 contracts!
       End of week #5…. +375.00
       End of week #6…. +750.00
      Now we trade with 3 contracts!
      FREEDOM!

Patience Pays off…
       Week #7….3 contracts
      $500 - $1,000 /day is now achievable!
      Add more!  4..5…6….7….and your ROI grows! 

Here’s how to get started…
       Advanced Course:  See Current Pricing $$
       Charts:  FREE ($100/mo savings)
       DATA:  FREE ($100/mo savings)
       Margin:  $500min, so $750 recommended
      Broker ReferencesSales@SchoolOfTrade.com 

       Advanced Course
       Live Trade Room
       Members Trainings
       Custom Trade Plan

Looking To buy Lows and Sell Highs on Crude

Crude Oil Futures:

1015am EST


- Crude oil futures are falling asleep on us right now trading sideways after the big jump up to 79.50

- The best options on crude oil are to wait to buy the lows and sell the highs.

- Buy the trend line as support around 79.00 and I will buy the 92 if we break to the downside

- If we rise to the highs im going to sell the 40 and sell the 47 looking to take the price back down into the sideways trading range.


Scalping Crude Oil Futures
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
- We open the 13-range chart on crude oil and we can see a much bigger picture and the larger move setting up below us.

- Entry short below 92 will be a 2-step reversal price pattern off these highs, and looking to cover this short position ½ at 75, ¼ off 55, and soft target of 18 and a hard target of 60 all the way to the lows of the previous trading range.


Day Trading Crude Oil Futures





















Russell Futures:

1035AM EST


- We see a inverted head and shoulders pattern on the 13range chart, which shows signs of a price reversal

- I don’t have the pattern on my 13range, so I look for the pattern on the faster 4range chart for my entry above 680.8

- This will be a scalper entry so use the standard scalping trade management strategies.


Reversal On Russell Futures
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Scalping Russell Futures

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

crude oil making new highs and the euro trading sideways futures trading strategies

We've had an exciting day today in the markets we trade; crude oil, gold, e-mini russell and of course we cant forget the mighty euro currency future.

we're expecting news at 830am EST tomorrow regarding the GDP and Jobless Claims, so im expecting some action tonight while people prep for tomorrow and then be sure to come join me tomorrow when we prep for the event at 8am est.


we made over 60 ticks on crude oil this morning when the market broke its trend line, and now that we're at the highs of the day, im looking for a selling opportunity.


click here for my crude oil swing trading strategy


click here to see how a day trader will tackle crude oil tonight


click here if you want to scalp crude oil futures for some easy profits with little risk

and we cant forget about the euro tonight, its been playing with us all week, making me money and then taking it back :) 

im watching a sideways market on the euro right now which is giving us some different options...

click here to follow my swing trading strategy for euro currency


click here if you want to day trade the euro currency


click here for scalping techniques on the euro tonight

we've had a great week in the trade room so far, and we had another great training today @ 1130am EST, keep up the hard work and remember to follow those rules.

click here to join our live trade room tomorrow

JJ :)

Fake-Out Breakout Fooled Me Once, Not Twice.




815am EST


- The dollar index futures are showing three distinct characteristics, giving us clues to the day ahead:

o Narrow trading range compared to yesterday (very narrow)
o Trading in a range below the trading range from yesterday (not inside day, its an outside day)
o Trading at the lows of the channel (buy the lows)

- These three ‘signs’ from the market tell us that

o We should wait for a breakout because the range is so narrow we don’t want to get chopped up in our trading today

o Expect to see support at the lows of this channel, so the downside moves on the dollar may be difficult, which means all the other markets should see DOWNWARD pressure.

o Its in our best interest to wait for the dollar to make new highs or lows so the rest of the markets will also move more for us.

- How will dollar apply to the e-mini ES?

o Narrow dollar = narrow ES (be careful on the ES until the dollar makes new highs or lows

o If we have support on the dollar, we have resistance on the e-mini ES (and the Russell too) so we should expect to see the dollar RISE, which will translate into the ES falling.

850am EST

- The euro currency futures at its highs means we are looking to sell the highs, and with the dollar bouncing off the lows we saw a nice easy 2-step reversal off the highs on euro futures.

- Now the dollar bounces up, the euro drops, and we wait for the opportunity to buy the lows of the euro.

- Gold futures are at the all-time highs and the highs of the bullish channel, so we are looking to sell the highs.

- We have a sideways trading range on the gold futures from 13.9 down to 07.0 so we can buy the break below 07 for the best opportunity, or buy the bounce off 07 at the lows of the trading range.

- Our 13 range chart on the gold futures shows us a 2-step reversal pattern at the highs with entry short below 1306.7

o Be careful the later this goes to trigger the closed the trend lines get, so we may need to adjust our targets based on the trend line and where it is in relation to my entry.

945am EST

- The dollar index continues to drag us down today with its narrow trading range and slow speed of price action

- While we wait for the dollar to move for us, we are getting all prepared for what may come later this morning.

- Crude oil futures are trading at the highs of the wedge pattern on the slower timeframe 34 range chart, and im looking for the short off the highs below 76.00

- The faster timeframes are very sloppy on crude oil ahead of the 1030am EST news today (crude inventories)

1025am EST

- We have news @ 1030 crude oil inventories and im watching gold futures on a 13-range chart which is perfect for day traders, scalpers, and swing traders

- We have the gold trading sideways just below the highs, so we have 2 options:

o If the buyers take control we can buy the lows with a 2-step reversal pattern above 1310, with profit targets of 11, the trend line above, and then soft target of 13.5, and final hard target of 14.5

o If the sellers are in control we look short below 1306.1 with profit targets much wider to the downside (much better trade than the long) at 5.0, trend line, soft target of 1300.5, and hard final target of 1295.0 (1/4)

1030am EST

- We saw a drop in crude oil inventories which sends the markets swinging around up and down while we wait for a few minutes to enter the market after the news.

- The Russell is trading in a sideways range at the highs, so we have 2 options:

o We can wait for the Russell to rise and test the highs of this range around 674.6 looking for a 2-step reversal pattern at the highs, but we have to wait for that to set up first.

o Right now our best option is to sell short below 68.8, with targets of 67.4, 66.4, soft target at 64.5 (trend line) and final hard target of 56.5 all the way to the lows from yesterday.

o I don’t have much of an option of buying the lows of this trading range b/c I have overhead resistance and support below at 71.5, which keeps me from buying the lows of 670.0, there wont be enough room for the trade room run for me.

1045am EST

- The dollar breaks new highs after seeing the ‘token print’ (new lower low after the consistent higher highs)

- Im watching the Euro currency futures trading sideways at the highs and we have three options

o Fast Track method short below 53, with a 10 tick stop and 10 tick target, make sure momentum and speed confirm your entry.

o We have a 2step short below 64 with targets of 55, 40, soft target of 15, and hard final target of the big round number and trend line at 1.3505 (1/4)

o The third option is to buy the lows of this range, and we need to wait to get above 3613 so we can clear this chop and slop around 1.3600 and get us back to the highs of the day with the final target of 35.

Hard vs. Soft Profit Targets and Trade Management Strategies




- Soft vs. Hard Target

o Soft target is where I am content to take profit, but im looking for reasons to extend the runner

 Looking for 3 signs of price reversal
 Looking for the price to bounce off this target, which is why I will take all my profit at this time.

o Hard target is the final target where I need to take profit

 When we see the soft target broken and we want to try to maximize the profits on this trade

- Trade management strategies (atm)

o Setting up the ATM strategies are easy

o Watch the video in the advanced course for all the details on the ATM strategy
o Members can attend training tomorrow @ 1130am EST for specifics.

- Auto- Levels indicator

o Load the templates, not the indicator
o Check the blog for the basics, and bring your questions to training for the specifics
o Use different templates for each market

 Crude
 Gold
 Russell
 Euro

 They are all using different templates

 Templates can be downloaded in the adv course

 We will review all of this tomorrow in training

- Fast Track Method

o The guests in the room can get the basics on the blog

o We did an entire review of this method and posted the recording in the advanced course, all the way at the bottom

o Download the document and watch the video review in the advanced course

o Tomorrow we will review this in great detail for our members @ 1130am EST

- Silver (SI)

o Low volume
o High margins
o Makes this a tough market to trade consistently

- Drawing channels

o Free video Here
o Step 1 draw a trend line from the highs/lows
o Step 2 look for ways to add that trend line to the highs or the lows
o I will train on this in members training on Wednesday @ 1130am EST

- What are all the indicators we use?

o OHLC
o Momentum
o Our swing indicator
o Trigger line
o Our auto levels

- Next training is Wednesday @ 1130am EST

Sideways Markets Reveal Trade Set-Ups On Gold and Crude

Gold & Crude Oil Futures:

-We have news @ 1030 crude oil inventories and im watching gold futures on a 13-range chart which is perfect for day traders, scalpers, and swing traders

- We have the gold trading sideways just below the highs, so we have 2 options:

o If the buyers take control we can buy the lows with a 2-step reversal pattern above 1310, with profit targets of 11, the trend line above, and then soft target of 13.5, and final hard target of 14.5

o If the sellers are in control we look short below 1306.1 with profit targets much wider to the downside (much better trade than the long) at 5.0, trend line, soft target of 1300.5, and hard final target of 1295.0 (1/4)



Day Trading Gold Futures
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Russell Futures:

- We saw a drop in crude oil inventories which sends the markets swinging around up and down while we wait for a few minutes to enter the market after the news.

- The Russell is trading in a sideways range at the highs, so we have 2 options:

o We can wait for the Russell to rise and test the highs of this range around 674.6 looking for a 2-step reversal pattern at the highs, but we have to wait for that to set up first.

o Right now our best option is to sell short below 68.8, with targets of 67.4, 66.4, soft target at 64.5 (trend line) and final hard target of 56.5 all the way to the lows from yesterday.


Day Trading Russell Futures






















o I don’t have much of an option of buying the lows of this trading range b/c I have overhead resistance and support below at 71.5, which keeps me from buying the lows of 670.0, there wont be enough room for the trade room run for me.


Scalp Mini Russell Futures





















Euro Futures:

1045am EST


- The dollar breaks new highs after seeing the ‘token print’ (new lower low after the consistent higher highs)

- Im watching the Euro currency futures trading sideways at the highs and we have three options

o Fast Track method short below 53, with a 10 tick stop and 10 tick target, make sure momentum and speed confirm your entry.

o We have a 2step short below 64 with targets of 55, 40, soft target of 15, and hard final target of the big round number and trend line at 1.3505 (1/4)

o The third option is to buy the lows of this range, and we need to wait to get above 3613 so we can clear this chop and slop around 1.3600 and get us back to the highs of the day with the final target of 35.


Day Trading Euro Futures


Tuesday, September 28, 2010

10:30 Reversal Confirms Buying Opportunity for Russell



815am EST


- Dollar index futures are trading flat and sideways after a move to the upside failed earlier today.

- While the dollar is sideways we set the highs and lows with price alert indicators to make sure we are aware of the market when it breaks out.

- The dollar sideways = everything else sideways, so we are anxious to see the highs and lows tested.

830am EST

- The Euro currency futures are trading sideways at the highs from earlier this month

- We defined our sideways trading range and we have plenty of trading opportunities buying the lows and selling the highs of this sideways range.

- Remember to avoid the middle of this range for the slower timeframe traders. The middle area around 1.3445 will be best used by short term traders, day traders and scalpers.

- We open our 13-range chart on the euro and we see an easy sideways range with plenty of opportunity to buy and sell

o Sell the highs of 89 and 3500
o Buy the lows of 3405 and 77
o Avoid the middle for higher risk trades

900am EST

- The crude oil futures are trading in a narrow sideways trading range from 76.00 down 75.53

- Our slower timeframe 34 range chart shows plenty of opportunity buying the lows and selling the highs of this range

o If price rises im looking to sell the highs of 76.57, 77.17, and if we breakout above I will buy above 77.26

o If price falls I can buy the the lows of 75.53, 76.07, and I will sell the breakout below 75.53 with a first target of 36-40 and a final target of the trend line around 75.00


1020am EST

- The e-mini Russell is at the lows of the bullish channel, so we’re looking to buy the lows.
- Entry long will need to be > 59.4 which is our trigger line on the 34 range chart as resistance.
- Once we clear 59.4 area we have plenty of room to the long side for this trade to work out well.
- Entry long > 59.5 with targets of 60.5, 61.5, and then the Prev LOD at 63.3

1035am EST

- We have the gold futures at the highs of the day again, so we have 2 options

o Buy the highs above 08.8 but this will be higher risk

o The better option will be to sell these highs below 1305.6 with targets of 2.9, 2.0, and then down to the top of the wedge at 98.5 for the final target.

1055am EST

- The crude oil futures have defined a sideways trading range from 76.57 down to 75.53

- Im looking to buy the breakout entry long above 76.62 with targets of 75, 95, and all the way to the top of 77.12

- I cant see a good entry short because the middle of the range will be too dangerous

- I can wait to buy the lows of this range if we cant break the highs, looking to buy above the lows 75.52

Russell futures

- We bought the lows of the Russell at 59.4 for a nice big winner filling all of our profit targets and flattening at 63.0

- Now we see the Russell looking to continue this move, and we are ready to enter long above 65.4 with targets of 66.5, 67.7, and then all the way up to the highs of 70.2 for the final target

1100am EST

- The personality of the market has changed drastically after 11am EST

- We had lots of movement and strong speed of the tape before 11am, now that is gone and the markets look like they are getting ready to fall asleep

- This is a good time to move to your demo account if you hit your daily goal

- The euro futures are trading sideways at the highs of the channel, so we should look for the reversal pattern for a short entry.

- The key is we need to get below the trigger line (yellow) before we get short.

- Entry can be below 36, but needs to be below the trigger line, whichever is higher.

Profit targets will be 20, 14, and then all the way down to the trend line support at 93 for the final target

Trading Psychology & Live Day Trading Crude Oil Futures




- Psychology of a Professional Trader

o Discipline cycle workshop in the advanced course, section 4 on emotions

o Whats the difference between a good trader and an excellent trader?

o Whats the difference between a profitable trader and a losing trader?

 The differences are the EMOTIONS that can either help or hurt a trader’s decisions.

o A professional trader knows that each trade involves risk, and that winners will come with losers, its how we react to those losing trades that makes the difference.

o Professional traders get into the ‘zone’ where they aren’t thinking, they are reacting

 Athletes get into the zone
 Musicians get into the zone

o Professional traders get into their ‘zone’ by removing the fear of losses
o They see every trade as a decision, and each trade result is the byproduct of that decision
o Professional traders take FULL responsibility for their trading actions

 If they win, they made the call

 If they lose, they made the call

 It wasn’t the markets fault

 It wasn’t the market makers out to get you

 It was YOUR/MY decision, and I need to live with it.

o Professional traders understand the value of trading WITH the market, not against it.

o Here’s a good example of what NOT to do:

 New trader makes money on day 1

 New trader loves trading!

 New trader loses money day 2

 New trader thinks the market did something different

 New trader finds more tools, indictors, more rules

 New trader goes back with more info

 New trader makes money on day 3

 New trader loves trading

 New trader gets overconfident

 New trader loses money

 New trader tries to find another indicator, another tool, another rule

 “IT’S THE MARKET’S FAULT, NOT MINE!!”

 New trader reads books, webinars, pays guru’s and the new trader still cant find the perfect tool

 New trader gets frustrated

 Market is out to get the new trader!!!!

o Most new traders are focused on remove the FEAR in their trading, they should be focused on increasing their confidence!

 Confidence increases when I am

• Familiar

• When I know what’s going on

• When I understand the situation

• When I’ve done something with consistency

• When I have seen it before

 With confidence at my back, the next time a trade comes up, I have all the confidence I need to enter the trade quickly.

 Avoids chasing, avoids waiting too long to enter the market

o Good example:

 Professional trader sees lots of patterns every day on his/her charts

 Some patters are high risk, some are low risk

 Professional traders know exactly what the HIGH % trades look like, so they are confident ready, willing, and able to enter those trades the moment they trigger

 Professional traders also know to confidently avoid trades that don’t fit their rules, and every time you avoid a losing trade specifically b/c you followed your rules will give you more confidence to enter the trades when they trigger.

o Fast Track Method is intended

 The goal of the FT Method is

• Increase confidence in your entries
• Teach patience to wait
• Show you how to live through a stop loss
• 1:1 risk/reward ratio is the best you can have!
• Set it and forget, no trade management

o What’s the most important thing you can do to help your trading psychology?

 Listen to the market, don’t just watch

- When will a trader use larger positions?

o Larger trade positions = larger emotions to worry about
o Many traders have a difficult time growing their account because of that fear of losing money
o Growing slowly is the best way to do this
o Start with a demo

 Add 1 contract

 Add another contract every time you earn $1,000usd

 Every time you add size you also add risk per trade, but as long as the Risk Reward Ratio is the same you will be fine.

 As you add more contracts to your trades, add them to the closest targets first, the 2nd and 3rd targets will use larger size once you feel comfortable with the new larger trading size.

o For example:

 Week 1-2 Practice
 Weeks 3-4 1 contract

• 1 target

 Weeks 5-6 add another contract

• 2 targets

 Weeks 7-8 add the third target
 Weeks 9-10

• Add another contract to our first target

 Weeks 11-12

• Add that 2nd contract to the 2nd target

• Pushing your contracts out

• Add another contract to the first target

- Review the last crude trade, short

Fast Track Question:

- Im using a 10tick stop and 10tick target

- My trade goes +9 ticks and then momentum is pointing down, and speed is slowing

- Can I take my profit earlier?

o Fast Track = NO!

o If you worry about taking profit, you are missing the point

o The goal is to read the tape, watch the volume, and learn what happens in this situation

 You may see the target get filled

 You may see your stop get filled

o Lets say you get stopped out!!

 I missed my target by 1 tick

 I lost 10 ticks because I didn’t get the target

 I learned that I should take profit when the market is 1 tick away from my target and I see momentum curl

 In the first 2 weeks you need to learn what the market looks and feels like, not how to make money

 After the first two weeks, then you can feel confident that you have SEEN IT and DONE IT twice.

 Use that experience to manage your trades.

Two Trading Options For Crude Oil Right Now

Gold Futures:

We have the gold futures at the highs of the day again, so we have 2 options

o Buy the highs above 08.8 but this will be higher risk

o The better option will be to sell these highs below 1305.6 with targets of 2.9, 2.0, and then down to the top of the wedge at 98.5 for the final target.

**up-date on gold** we also have an entry short below 1306.4 which just formed.


Day Trading Gold






















Crude Oil Futures:

- The crude oil futures have defined a sideways trading range from 76.57 down to 75.53

- Im looking to buy the breakout entry long above 76.62 with targets of 75, 95, and all the way to the top of 77.12

- I cant see a good entry short because the middle of the range will be too dangerous

- I can wait to buy the lows of this range if we cant break the highs, looking to buy above the lows 75.52


Day Trading Crude Oil Futures
  





















Russell Futures:

- We bought the lows of the Russell at 59.4 for a nice big winner filling all of our profit targets and flattening at 63.0

- Now we see the Russell looking to continue this move, and we are ready to enter long above 65.4 with targets of 66.5, 67.7, and then all the way up to the highs of 70.2 for the final target.



Day Trading Russell Futures




















Euro Futures:

- The euro futures are trading sideways at the highs of the channel, so we should look for the reversal pattern for a short entry.


- The key is we need to get below the trigger line (yellow) before we get short.

- Entry can be below 36, but needs to be below the trigger line, whichever is higher.

- Profit targets will be 20, 14, and then all the way down to the trend line support at 93 for the final target.


Euro Day Trading Futures


Monday, September 27, 2010

Crude Oil Futures giving us plenty of swing, day and scalping opportunities

hi guys, another exciting day to be a trader, hope you had a wonderful day as well :)

im watching crude oil this evening because its giving us some nice slower timeframe patterns which are easy to get into and easy to manage for maximum profits.

im opening my 34-range chart and looking at a swing trade on crude oil futures right now (click to view the chart)

im also using a 13-range chart for day trading crude oil because it has a great sideways trading range right now, making it easy to navigate stops and targets.(click to see the chart)

and then for you scalpers, im using my 4 range chart to take bits and pieces out of the market this evening with the market trading in a simple wedge candlestick pattern for scalpers. (click to see the chart)

dont forget, we review all of this in our members training on wednesday, so please come join us :)

see you in the live trade room tomorrow @ 745am EST for market prep and our morning routine!

stick to those rules, JJ

200 Total Ticks: Euro and Crude Oil Earn Big Profits































830am EST

- The dollar index futures trades at new lows continuing the downward trend in the dollar index futures we saw earlier this month

- When the dollar makes new lows we also expect the markets we like to trade to RISE, or at least attempt to test new highs.

- The euro futures are trading at the highs of their trading range, and the lows of the bullish channel

o Ill buy the lows of the range at 3422
o Ill sell the highs of the range below 3494
o Ill buy the lows of the channel, but I need to clear above the big round number of 3500.
o Swing traders will wait to get above 3500
o Day traders and scalpers can look for trades at any time.

900am EST

- Crude oil futures are trading at the highs of the sideways range and the highs of the wedge pattern

o Sell the highs of the trading range below 77.26
o Sell the highs of the wedge below 77.26
o Buy the lows of the range above 71.50
o Buy the lows of the wedge above 75.00 and 74.00

1015am EST

- Crude oil futures on the 13-range chart is setting up for a reversal pattern off these new lows.

- We call this the fast track method using the 2-step reversal pattern, and will use entry above 76.07 (big round number) with target of 10 ticks and a stop of 10 ticks

- We can also use a simple day trading strategy with this as well

- Entry long above 76.07 with profit targets of 19, 30, and then all the way up to 60 for the final target (Friday’s HOD)

1030am EST

- The emini Russell futures are trading sideways at the highs of the sideways trading range and the middle of the bullish channel

o Im going to sell the highs of 68.4 and 70.7
o I will buy the breakout above 70.7
o Will buy the lows at 64.7 and 63.3

1100am EST

- We took another 45 ticks of profit on the 2-step reversal on crude oil futures 13-range chart

- Now we have the market going sideways, and defined our new trading range, which will tell us what to do next on the crude oil futures market

o Range is from 76.35 down to 75.70

o I will sell the highs of 35 and buy the low of 75, trading with a scalp or day trade entry inside this trading range

o If we do break out of this trading range I will buy above 35 and sell short below 68 using a simple breaker pattern (trend continuation pattern)

1125am EST

- We see crude oil break those new lower lows and gives us a chance to sell with the new short term trend short.

o Entry short for the fast track method traders will be < 75.52, with a 10 tick stop and 10 tick target

o Day traders and scalpers will also enter short < 75.52 with targets of 5/10/Runner or discretionary targets for day traders of 40, 25, and then big round number of 75.05

Day Trading Technique: Buying Lows & Selling Highs



- How do we buy the lows and sell the highs


o Step1 = define your sideways range

 Auto levels indicator does this for you
 Look for 2-tops and bottoms as easy targets for the highs and lows

o Step2 = look for the test of the highs/lows

 Needs to be as close as possible
 Avoid the middle of the sideways range

o Step3 = begin to look for the 3 signs of price reversal

 Slowing speed of the tape
 Momentum curls against the short term trend
 Big MONEY buyers/sellers against the short term trend

o Step4 = enter with confidence when you see the swing high/low broken to trigger your entry.
o Patterns we use

 2-step reversal
 Breaker
 Wave

o We use the auto-levels to find these highs and lows
o What indicators to watch

 Pace of tape
 Auto levels
 Time & sales
 Momentum
 Look for swing highs/lows for my entry

- Benefits of the filtered time & sales compared to the unfiltered T&S

o Filtered time and sales shows us the big money in the market

 Filter = 5 contracts
 ES / FESX / ZN = 20 contracts
 Used to determine my entries, exits

o Unfiltered shows us all the orders coming into the market

 Tells me the exact price levels we are trading at
 Also shows me SPEED of the orders coming into the market

• Used with the pace of tape indicator

- Using the MACD indicator

o Used for exits, never for entries
o Used with my trade management chart
o I watch the zero-line to see if the histogram is above/below the zero

 If its below, I want to flatten my long trade
 If its above, I want to cover my short

- Trade Management Strategies
o Scalpers have standardized trade management, always the same
o Day traders & Swing Traders will use different trade management depending on the market structure

 Use highs/lows for my stops and targets.

- What do we look for at 10:30 for the reversal?

o Watch the e-mini’s they are the ones with the best 1030 reversal
o Locate a major level of support/resistance
o Wait for price to test that level around 1030 (as early as 10am, late as 11am)
o Once you see the test, look for the 3 signs of price reversal

 Slowing speed
 Momentum curls against short term trend
 Big money buyers/sellers against short term trend

o Use a 2-step reversal pattern to sell the highs or buy the lows, and if you miss the reversal, you can get in with a breaker or a wave pattern assuming it sets up.

- Different ways to find potential profit targets

o Fib Levels
o AB=CD Pattern

Grab The Reversal On New Crude Lows

Crude Oil Futures:

- Crude oil futures on the 13-range chart is setting up for a reversal pattern off these new lows.

- We call this the fast track method using the 2-step reversal pattern, and will use entry above 76.07 (big round number) with target of 10 ticks and a stop of 10 ticks

- We can also use a simple day trading strategy with this as well

- Entry long above 76.07 with profit targets of 19, 30, and then all the way up to 60 for the final target (Friday’s HOD)


Day Trading Crude Oil Long





















Crude Oil Futures Up-Date:

We took our final profit at 76.25 and we are flat this crude 2-step Long for a total of 60 ticks or $600usd on this winner.

Congrats to all the members and guests who made money with us in the live trade room today!

Now over 180ticks of profit on only 4 trades

- We took another 45 ticks of profit on the 2-step reversal on crude oil futures 13-range chart


- Now we have the market going sideways, and defined our new trading range, which will tell us what to do next on the crude oil futures market

o Range is from 76.35 down to 75.70

o I will sell the highs of 35 and buy the low of 75, trading with a scalp or day trade entry inside this trading range

o If we do break out of this trading range I will buy above 35 and sell short below 68 using a simple breaker pattern (trend continuation pattern)


Crude Oil Futures Sideways Markets





















- We see crude oil break those new lower lows and gives us a chance to sell with the new short term trend short.


o Entry short for the fast track method traders will be < 75.52, with a 10 tick stop and 10 tick target

o Day traders and scalpers will also enter short < 75.52 with targets of 5/10/Runner or discretionary targets for day traders of 40, 25, and then big round number of 75.05


Crude Oil Futures Short the Lows


Friday, September 24, 2010

Dollar Tumbles and Gave Me a Great Short Entry on Crude Oil and Gold



830am EST


- We have durable goods orders at 830am EST

- This is one of my ‘big 3’ news events for the pulse of the US economy

o Durable Goods = heavy machinery, products, parts, made in big warehouses
o Jobless Claims = number of people filing for benefits
o Nat Gas Inventories = how much natural gas do we have

3 indicators…

- More people going back to work (lower jobless claims)
- Those people are making products (durable goods order rise)
- The products are being made in factories (nat gas inventories fall)
If durable goods orders fall, rather than rise…

- People are going back to work, but they are not producing products, which means the natural gas inventories are rising because of lack of production (stagnant economy)

Dollar index is trading at the lows of the trading range from yesterday

- If the dollar bounces off these lows we will see everything drop
- If the dollar breaks these lows, we will see everything rise
- The thing we want to look for is the dollar simply testing and/or breaking the extremes (highs / lows)

Crude oil futures are trading right in the middle of the sideways trading range below 76.00 on our 34-range chart.

- We saw 2 patterns on the crude oil 13-range and 4-range charts and decided to skip the trade b/c momentum wasn’t looking right, and it saved us from a loss.

- We also avoided a trade b/c we saw a trend line in our way, and our rules kept us out of that loss as well.
- So far today, we’ve earned money by protecting our capital.

- The personality of the market on crude oil is undecided, doesn’t know if it wants to keep testing new highs or pull off the highs and drop.

930AM EST

- Gold futures still making our job easy trading at all-time highs, so we always look to sell the highs.

1015am EST

- Watching the gold futures for a breaker long above 1301.6, and a 2-step short below 97.2

1035am EST

- Euro futures at the lows of the slower timeframe (34range) which tells us the buy-side is the better side to be trading right now

- I open my 13-range (day traders timeframe) and I see a breaker long above 3474, with targets 95, 15, and the high of the channel @ 40

- I also see a 2-step reversal off the high of day, we need to get below the support, with entry below 3434, and targets of 18, 00 (big round number) and then the lows of the channel @ 67

Identify the Trading Day Ahead of Time With This Proven Technique



- Determining if today will be a challenging day

o News events

 Events today

• Anything late in the day today
• FOMC announcement
• Meeting minutes
• Fed chairman speaking

 Events later this week

• Is there anything end of the week people may be waiting

o Check the Dollar Index

 Are we trading inside or outside of the previous day’s trading range?

• Inside day = trading range is within the range from the previous day
• Inside days = narrow price action
• Outside day = trading range is outside of the range from yesterday
• Widening price action, larger moves

o Determine the personality of the market

 Consistency is the key
 8am = the markets are slow and flat
 10am = still slow and flat
 1030am = more volume, but still no patterns
 1100am = lots of volume, lots of movement, and new patterns everywhere!

o What do I do next?

 Ive determined that I have a nasty day ahead…what do I do?

• New traders move to DEMO
• Trade smaller size
• Look for double confirmation

o Use multiple timeframes to confirm momentum, pattern

• DO NOT walk away from your charts, stay and listen and keep an eye on the change in personality

- Why do we focus on the edges (extremes), and avoid the middle?

o Because that is where we have the support/resistance to help our trade
o We avoid the middle because there is NO buy/sell pressure in the middle

- 3-strike rule

o One of my favorite tools for scalpers
o Used for any type of trading, but best used for the higher risk, faster timeframe trades
o Check the blog:
o If my profit target is tested (not filled) 3 times, I will no longer wait for the fill, I will FORCE the fill

 Move that target up/down to get it filled

 If this happens on our 1st target, you will have risk in the market still, so you need to move your stop to entry

- Compare the YG and the GC

o GC = gold full size
o YG = mini gold (lower cost/tick, and less volume)

- How do you read the dollar

o How do we use the dollar?

o 13-range on the dollar
o Draw my trend lines, prep for the market the EXACT same way!
o I don’t trade the dollar because of its low volume
o Use the correlation because it’s the ONLY true fundamental correlation

o Dx-Pattern, a trade pattern using the dollar index

- Fast Track on inside day

o Inside day = higher risk
o Inside day = narrow trading range
o Inside day = higher risk for fast tracks traders b/c you are leaving your orders on the table ahead of time.

- Scalping and maximizing the runner

o Im a self-proclaimed intra-day scalper
o Scalper = tight stops and a quick target
o Intra-day = im looking to hold my trades to the highs/lows of the trading range, look for runners.

o Step 1: use multiple timeframes (review this every morning at 745am EST)

 Show you where the MAJOR levels of support and resistance are

o Step 2: look for scalping entries, with the goal of getting into just 1 or 2 big runners

 Example: use your 4 range for a scalping entry on crude oil
 We know the first two targets

o Step 3: plan your final target using your slower timeframe
o Step 4: hold the trade as long as your indicators tell you

3 signs of price reversal


- Do we use the open/close of cash/PIT?

o I watch 24 hours a day, looking for overnight highs and lows, and things that happened while we were sleeping

o Do want to know WHEN the markets PIT open so I can expect the spike in volume.
o What times do we watch?

- What’s the difference between the E-mini’s and Crude/Gold

o E-mini’s are range-bound markets

 Sell highs, buy the lows

o Commodities are breakout markets

 Buy/sell the breakouts
 Sell the highs and buy the lows just like other markets
 I find commodities give me more opportunities with less waiting and watching.

- Does my trade size always stay the same?

o It does unless I have something go wrong

 Notice the market is getting really choppy I may cut my size in half
 When I get another $1000 new equity in my account I will add 1 more contract

- Inside day

o Are there markets that are better or worse?

 Worst = e-mini b/c they go completely flat
 Runner-up = currencies because they are closely tied to the dollar

 Best = commodities b/c they are breakout markets

o What should we be preparing for the most?

 Watch the personality change during the day to tell you when to start/stop trading

o Afternoon session different?

 Yes, you can but watch the personality
 If the market is bad in the morning, the chances of it getting better in the afternoon is VERY low.

- Sideways ranges, Trend line, channel, wedge, horseshoe’s, which is the most important?

o Check the blog:

o Sideways ranges are most important, they offer the highest percentage opportunities, with the lowest amount of risk

o Wedges and Channels are easy to trade with
o Horseshoe patterns will be the most dangerous because we’re using OLD trend lines in the equation.

- Overnight trades

o This method works on any market, any timeframe, and anyone can learn it.
o My favorite overnight markets

 Aussie
 Yen
 Gold
 Crude Oil

- Scaling in or scaling out of trades

o I do not scale in

 Adding to your position as the market moves in your direction

o I always scale out

 Taking profit as the market moves in your direction

Sell Highs on Gold and Crude Oil for +50 ticks

Gold Futures:

- Watching the gold futures for a breaker long above 1301.6, and a 2-step short below 97.2

Gold Futures Day Trading






















Euro Futures:

- Euro futures at the lows of the slower timeframe (34range) which tells us the buy-side is the better side to be trading right now


- I open my 13-range (day traders timeframe) and I see a breaker long above 3474, with targets 95, 15, and the high of the channel @ 40

- I also see a 2-step reversal off the high of day, we need to get below the support, with entry below 3434, and targets of 18, 00 (big round number) and then the lows of the channel @ 67
 


Euro Day Trading


Thursday, September 23, 2010

Sold highs on Gold, buy the lows Euro and Crude Oil Goes Crazy




815am EST

- Crude Oil futures have broken the lows of the bullish channel on the 34 range chart, and now we have multiple trading opportunities:

o Swing traders need to see a new pattern short below 73.84
o Day Traders can sell short using a faster timeframe anywhere they see a pattern below 84
o Scalpers can also sell short anytime they have a pattern below 84

o We can also look for the reversal of these lows, 73.90, with the goal of buying the lows and possibly getting us back into the channel pattern above us on the 34-range chart.

o Ahead of the news @ 830am EST we also seeing a buying opportunity entering the sideways trading range above 73.90

830am EST

o Jobless claims came out higher than expected at 830am EST

o The faster timeframe 4 range chart shows us in the middle of both the bearish channel and the sideways trading range

o Our best bet for the scalpers on crude oil is to sell the highs of 74.32, or buy the lows of 73.58, and avoid the middle, which is around 74.00

o Crude oil speed of the tape is slow right now, less than 150
o Average true range on crude oil is rising at 830am EST

- Gold futures trading sideways at the top of the bullish channel

o We’re looking for the following entries

o Swing traders will wait for the market to break below 87.5 for a short trade, looking to sell the highs and hold all the way down to the low of the channel at 1272.0

o Day traders and scalpers can buy the lows of 87.5 and then sell the highs of 95.1

o We will continue to avoid buying the highs because we are at the all-time highs and the riskier trades will be trying to predict where the new highs will go.

o Gold fast timeframe 4 range chart shows a sideways trading range and a narrowing wedge pattern

 We are going to stay patient and sell the highs, buy the lows, and avoid the middle of this trading range.

930am EST

- We took our first 2 trades on the crude oil and the gold, first trade on crude was a 14 tick winner, and then we tried to grab the short off the highs on gold, but had to exit early for a small loss when the alarm went off at 915am and we saw the 3 signs of a price reversal

o 3 signs of price reversal:

 Slowing speed of the tape
 Momentum turns against you
 Big buyers/sellers against your position

- Euro Futures are trading in a sideways range at the highs of the quarter.

o I moved to a faster timeframe for my slower chart to get more levels for us to use today
o Don’t forget to update your medium timeframe with the correct charts with this change.
o Swing traders will need to wait for a breakout below 3300

o Day traders and scalpers can buy the lows of 3309, or sell the highs at 88, 12, and 37’s as we move our way up.

o We also draw trend lines from the recent lows and recent highs to form a sideways wedge pattern

 Buy the lows of the wedge
 Sell the highs of the wedge
 Avoid the middle of the wedge

1030am EST

- The markets have slowing speed across the board today for unknown reasons.

- Russell futures are trading at the lows of the bullish channel pattern so we are looking for an entry long above 653.8 buying these lows on the 21-range chart, and breaking out of the wedge on the 13-range chart.

1045am EST

- E-mini Russell futures are trading sideways, but we can see some nice open space above this sideways range so im looking for a breakout trade opportunity at the highs

- Long above 659.3 with profit targets of 61.5, 65.0 and 67.5 (prev hod)

1100am EST

- Crude oil futures are trading right in the middle of the sideways trading range, and in the middle of the bearish channel pattern.

- The best thing to do is wait for price to test the highs/lows and look to play at the edges, avoid the middle!

- We also see a new high risk entry with a 2step reversal off the lows on the 13 range chart on crude oil.

- Entry long above 74.49, with targets of 60, 65, and then up to the big round number of 74.95 for the final ¼

o Beware, this is going to be higher risk because we are in the middle of the larger range, at the lows on the shorter timeframe range.

Russell Currently Trading Sideways, Watch For Breakout.

Russell Futures:

- E-mini Russell futures are trading sideways, but we can see some nice open space above this sideways range so im looking for a breakout trade opportunity at the highs.

- Long above 659.3 with profit targets of 61.5, 65.0 and 67.5 (prev hod)



Russell Futures Day Trading























Crude Oil Futures:

- Crude oil futures are trading right in the middle of the sideways trading range, and in the middle of the bearish channel pattern.

- The best thing to do is wait for price to test the highs/lows and look to play at the edges, avoid the middle!



Crude Oil Futures























Crude Oil Futures Up-Date:

- We also see a new high risk entry with a 2step reversal off the lows on the 13 range chart on crude oil.

- Entry long above 74.49, with targets of 60, 65, and then up to the big round number of 74.95 for the final ¼

o Beware, this is going to be higher risk because we are in the middle of the larger range, at the lows on the shorter timeframe range.


Crude Oil Futures Up-Date