Day Trading Failure Patterns on Crude Oil and Gold Futures with Dollar Index Correlation

We know we have contract rollover, so beware that volume may be a little slower going into the first hour of trading on gold

People are coming back from the holiday, so expect them to stumble onto the same thing we did and have to take the time to roll forward.

Its Monday morning, after a holiday weekend, so expect a sluggish open to the day as people get back to their desks. Good time to plan your trading for the end of the year.

845am est

- We’re looking for the dollar index to give us some clues to the best trading opportunities coming our way this morning

o Strong bullish price channel (dollar is trending up)
o Wide trading range (good)
o Top of the price channel, so look for the DX to drop off the highs

 Look for buying opportunities on the gold, crude, euro, Russell, etc

o Support at the PHOD (trigger line) so look out for the bounce off the PHOD to see new highs being tested.

o Set my price alert indicator for the HOD and the swing low below the trigger line

 High of 80.875
 Low of 80.655

900am est

- We open our 55-range chart for a slightly slower look at the gold futures and we notice that today on contract rollover we have ourselves in the absolute middle of the trading range

o Resting on the trigger line as support
o Flat price action on the faster timeframes
o Looks very concerning right now

915am est

- Gold futures are trading inside the range from last week
- We notice a strong wedge pattern has the price action contained sideways and sluggish

- We tried to test the highs, didn’t work and came back down, then tested the lows, didn’t work, and came back up. Now price sits at the open of the trading day, and we need to wait patiently for the price to test the highs or the lows.

920am est

- The alarm at 915am est went off, everything higher risk until 935am, after the US Open
- The crude oil futures market is showing us at the highs of the price channel on the 55-range chart
- Now im looking for opportunity to sell the highs of 84.70 and take profit on the way back down.

1025am est

- We expect to see 1030am news and the emini reversal in 5 mins

- The crude oil futures are sitting on the support trend line just above 84.00 and trying to decide which direction it wants to move

o If we hold this support, expect us to test the HOD
o If we break this support, expect us to test the 30’s
o It all depends on what happens RIGHT HERE on crude oil.
o The gold market is trading back in the middle of the trading range after testing the lows and giving us 2 opportunities to profit.

We trade the higher volume contract as day traders, so gold indeed had contract rollover. Below are some helpful links for contract rollover.


Look for this on contract rollover

Day Trading, easy way to find patterns

Day trading strategy, contract rollover