The Market Gives us clues today…
830am EST
- Dollar Index Futures are trading sideways at their highs
o Speed of the tape is very slow
o Double-tops and double-bottoms above and below us, creating a sideways bracket
o Average true range (ATR) is still dropping from its May 19th highs, so e continue to trade with caution
- 830am brings our Jobless Claims and Advanced GDP
o INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 460K V 455KE
o *(US) Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP PRICE INDEX: 1.0% V 0.9%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.6%E
- Important Psychological Levels
o Big Round Numbers (1.2000, 78.00, 89.00)
o Sometimes we see value in the HALF BigRound #
1.2500 . 1.2550, 78.50, 89.50
850am EST
- Euro futures contracts, trading at their lows, opposite to the dollar
o Sideways market, double-tops and double-bottoms keeping moving sideways
o Speed of the tape has been decent, not as slow it was on Wednesday
o Average true range Is still at its lower levels, but not as low as it was on Wednesday
How does Nat Gas affect other markets?
- Crude Oil & Nat Gas are finite natural resources
- Nat Gas is nowhere near as speculative as Crude Oil, but it is getting more and more every day
- What is Nat Gas used for?
o Industrial production
Factories
Machinery plants
LARGE MACHINERY
- Nat gas has a better finger on the pulse on the economy than anything else
o Earlier this week we saw ‘Industrial production’
o Durable Goods Orders
Means we are MAKING STUFF
o Low Nat Gas inventories
Leading Indicator on the Economy:
- Durable Goods going UP
o People are working, and producing STUFF
- At the same time…
- Nat Gas Inventories are DOWN
o People are producing stuff in FACTORIES that are consuming all that NAT GAS
The other side of the coin…
- Durable goods go DOWN
o We produce LESS stuff
- Nat Gas inventories are down
o They’re producing less NAT GAS b/c there’s no DEMAND
1115am EST:
- The previous 3 trades have not gone very far.
- Our rules lined up
- We executed with confidence
- We got our quick 1st target filled, moved our stop to entry
- But the market has NO FOLLOW-THRU
- We got 6 ticks down, and then 8 ticks back up.
1130am EST
- Euro markets closing
- We need to be careful we look for VOLUME to continue trading this late in the morning
1030 TO 1130am EST = dead zone
- The euro session doesn’t bleed over into the US session until 1130am EST (when the Euro session ends)
- After 1030 usually all the news is behind us
- 1100 is typically when we see Mr. Obama start to speak
5 trades today, 5 Winners
+73 ticks, $785usd
Only 4 contracts needed to achieve this today!
See you tomorrow @ 745am EST for the live trade room session!
Thursday, May 27, 2010
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