Thursday, May 27, 2010

73 Ticks Live Today. $50,000 for the Year on 4 lots.

The Market Gives us clues today…


830am EST

- Dollar Index Futures are trading sideways at their highs

o Speed of the tape is very slow

o Double-tops and double-bottoms above and below us, creating a sideways bracket

o Average true range (ATR) is still dropping from its May 19th highs, so e continue to trade with caution

- 830am brings our Jobless Claims and Advanced GDP

o INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 460K V 455KE

o *(US) Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP PRICE INDEX: 1.0% V 0.9%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.6%E

- Important Psychological Levels

o Big Round Numbers (1.2000, 78.00, 89.00)

o Sometimes we see value in the HALF BigRound #

 1.2500 . 1.2550, 78.50, 89.50

850am EST

- Euro futures contracts, trading at their lows, opposite to the dollar

o Sideways market, double-tops and double-bottoms keeping moving sideways

o Speed of the tape has been decent, not as slow it was on Wednesday

o Average true range Is still at its lower levels, but not as low as it was on Wednesday







How does Nat Gas affect other markets?

- Crude Oil & Nat Gas are finite natural resources

- Nat Gas is nowhere near as speculative as Crude Oil, but it is getting more and more every day

- What is Nat Gas used for?

o Industrial production

 Factories

 Machinery plants

 LARGE MACHINERY

- Nat gas has a better finger on the pulse on the economy than anything else

o Earlier this week we saw ‘Industrial production’

o Durable Goods Orders

 Means we are MAKING STUFF

o Low Nat Gas inventories

Leading Indicator on the Economy:

- Durable Goods going UP

o People are working, and producing STUFF

- At the same time…

- Nat Gas Inventories are DOWN

o People are producing stuff in FACTORIES that are consuming all that NAT GAS

The other side of the coin…

- Durable goods go DOWN

o We produce LESS stuff

- Nat Gas inventories are down

o They’re producing less NAT GAS b/c there’s no DEMAND

1115am EST:

- The previous 3 trades have not gone very far.

- Our rules lined up

- We executed with confidence

- We got our quick 1st target filled, moved our stop to entry

- But the market has NO FOLLOW-THRU

- We got 6 ticks down, and then 8 ticks back up.

1130am EST

- Euro markets closing

- We need to be careful we look for VOLUME to continue trading this late in the morning



1030 TO 1130am EST = dead zone

- The euro session doesn’t bleed over into the US session until 1130am EST (when the Euro session ends)

- After 1030 usually all the news is behind us

- 1100 is typically when we see Mr. Obama start to speak








5 trades today, 5 Winners

+73 ticks, $785usd

Only 4 contracts needed to achieve this today!

See you tomorrow @ 745am EST for the live trade room session!


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