The US Dollar Index Futures is one of the most widely-recognized electronically-trader markets in the world.
Comparing the USD against a basket of major currencies, this futures index has relatively low daily trading volume compared to Euro or Pound, and is primarily used for its strong correlations to aid traders in many different situations.
Professional traders watch the Dollar Index at the times it is most active, which occurs from 8am to 12pm EST during trading days.
The times also correspond well with Crude Oil & Gold futures, which also see more activity at these times as well.
There are many ways to use the US Dollar Index for trading opportunities, but most traders find the DX to be most consistently-used as a filter for high-risk trades.
Let’s first discuss the basic correlation that traders use.
There is a negative correlation between the DX and almost every other market that traders watch.
The Dollar is negative to other currencies b/c it’s the world reserve currency, and it’s negative to commodities b/c of the simple laws of supply and demand.
Let’s focus on the correlation to Gold & Crude Oil Futures.
When the Dollar is rising, Crude Oil & Gold falls
As traders, there are lots of different times in the day when the dollar begins to move more dramatically, such as the open of the US Markets @ 9:30am EST, before and after major news events such as Jobless Claims Reports or FOMC News.
We look for the Dollar to begin its trend, and using the negative correlation between these markets, we look for crude oil & gold opportunities to the opposite of the dollar’s trend.
When the Dollar is trending, traders use Breakout Patterns to capitalize on this correlation
With the dollar rising, look for high-percentage entries to the short side of Gold or Crude Oil Futures.
When the Dollar is flat, the Crude Oil & Gold is flat
Most traders will use the Dollar correlation as a filter because it allows them to avoid high-risk entries on Gold & Crude Oil Futures.
Without a trend on Dollar, the Gold & Crude Oil Futures also show flat price action, and tend to reverse their current trends often.
The dollar has a tendency to get very choppy during indecisive times in the market, and we tend to stay away from higher-risk trading on Crude Oil & Gold during these times.
When the Dollar is Flat, Traders use Trend-Reversal Patterns to Capitalize on this correlation.
Another important thing to watch on the Dollar is key Support & Resistance around simple chart patterns.
For example, using a Head & Shoulders pattern on the Dollar, traders will avoid trading Gold & Crude Oil when the Dollar attempts to complete the trend reversal.
Smart traders will wait to trade the reaction to the move around these extreme levels, rather than trying to be the first to enter the market when the Dollar here.
In closing, the Dollar Index Futures can be used very effectively with a negative correlation with many of the market we love to trade.
Of all the uses for this index, the most effective way most traders use the Dollar is as a filter, to avoid taking high-risk trades on other markets such as Crude Oil & Gold.
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Dont forget to watch the Dollar Index for a heads up on a 'Fake-out Breakout'
ReplyDeleteHi guys! remember to watch the Euro when the dollar is RISING.
ReplyDeleteif the DX is rising and the Euro is falling, this is a sign of people leaving the euro and going into the USD and most likely into GOLD for shelter from the falling prices.
Look for the dollar to rise and gold to fall, unless the EURO is dropping on good volume and that tells us the Euro is moving volume into a safer market, the GOLD or the DOLLAR.
The US Dollar is the world’s reserve currency, so any global business needs to HEDGE their dollar risk with other currencies.
ReplyDeleteExample:
- Tomorrow the US Dollar gets less valuable.
- Things in the US are more expensive
- Things become more SCARCE (harder to afford)
- Supply is less, which means demand is more
- Demand rises, so does price